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Highlight: Inevitable in current climate pattern…Argentina hit by long-duration heat wave!

Fig. 1-3: GFS 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal precipitation forecast across South America plus the daily soil moisture anomaly analysis.

Summary: As meteorological spring fades across South America two aspects relevant to the summer pattern ahead are revealing their impact with an adverse character. The GFS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast reveals a rapidly developing hot regime across Argentina which will last through the next 15 days (Fig. 1). During this time, risk of >100F (>37C) is common throughout Argentina. Of course, anomalous heat occurs with a dry climate which helps to enhance the heat risk (Fig. 2). Daily soil moisture anomalies identify a drought across the northern half of Argentina (Fig. 3) which is attracting high-pressure ridging aloft extending to this location from the semi-permanent warm marine heat wave (MHW) east of Argentina. While Argentina is hot and dry with intensifying drought, much of Brazil is wet with suppressed heat.