October 2022 - Climate Impact Company

10/28/2022, 8:49 am EDT

Climate Influences on South America Summer Climate

Look at the warm SSTA forecast across the subtropical southern hemisphere valid for mid-to-late summer. The projection by the IMME model is likely the warmest signature on record. Above and downwind warm SSTA zones, upper-level high-pressure ridging in the subtropics is generated.

10/26/2022, 5:00 am EDT

Updating The North Pacific “Warm Blob” and Explaining Optimum Climate Normal

According to NOAA/SFSC the 2022 Northeast Pacific "warm blob" (NEP22A) has reached a sufficient intensity and aerial coverage making NEP22A the 4th most intense in the 40-year record. This feature, semi-permanent since 2014, has been well-correlated to a persistent upper-level pattern in the northern hemisphere featuring a drought-enhancing western North America drought and presence of a "polar vortex" sometimes capable of delivering extreme cold to the U.S. during winter.

10/25/2022, 4:26 am EDT

Persistent Wet Southeast Brazil Upper Trough Becomes Migratory…Wetter Northeast Brazil

Wet to very wet climate has dominated southwest and interior southeast Brazil during the past 90 days. The culprit has been a semi-permanent (wet) upper-level low-pressure trough over Southeast Brazil. In Novmber, the trough becomes more migratory and forces the wetter climate into Northeast Brazil while Southern Brazil and Argentina have a tendency for drier than normal climate.

10/24/2022, 4:46 am EDT

Very Dry Pattern Forecast to Return to Much of Europe

Over-the-weekend all forecast models indicated a harsh dry trend across much of Europe through the next 15 days including the ECM ENS. The issue is a stalled wet upper trough off Western Europe compensated for by a broad upper ridge pattern in Europe.

10/24/2022, 4:15 am EDT

Australia Extreme Rainfall Shifts Back into Victoria Next 10 Days

Last week excessive rainfall (6-8 in.) was observed over parts of northeast News South Wales and southeast Queensland. According to ECM, the next round of storms will deliver similar rainfall amounts focused on Victoria over the next 10 days causing more flash flooding.

10/23/2022, 1:12 pm EDT

Updating Global SSTA, Soil Moisture and November 2022 Global Climate Expectations

Regional SSTA in the middle latitudes continue to have a profound influence on climate as Q4/2022 has started and this influence will certainly continue in November 2022. Highlights include a West-central North America full-latitude upper ridge, an eastward shift of the Europe ridge, favoring a dry ridge for Argentina and more soaking rains caused by a persistent East Australia low pressure area.

10/21/2022, 8:56 am EDT

Deep Tropics Stay Active Through November Mainly Out-to-Sea Events

The North Atlantic basin is forecast to maintain an unusually high amount of convection mostly in the deep tropics extending well into November. The risk of additional tropical cyclones is high but any storms that form will stay out to sea.

10/20/2022, 7:02 pm EDT

CIC and NOAA NOV/DEC/JAN 2022-23 Climate Forecast Comparison

The CIC-CA outlook for NOV/DEC/JAN 2022-23 indicates anomalous warmth across the Canadian Prairies, Great Plains and East-central U.S. plus the Southwest States. New England and Southeast Canada are also milder than normal. By comparison, the NOAA/CPC outlook indicates the likelihood of warmer than normal temperature across California, the Southwest U.S., and the South States plus the East Seaboard.

10/19/2022, 8:32 am EDT

Southern Brazil Rains Abate Days 6-10 but Return Days 11-15

Rain-soaked soils across southwest into southeast Brazil receive more rainfall this week. In the 6-10-day period this entire area turns dry with no rain expected. However, in the 11-15-day period, the forecast trend is for the rain to return to this important Brazil crop area.

10/19/2022, 8:21 am EDT

Incoming High Wind Event Central U.S.

High wind episodes are ahead for the Great Plains! The onset of the high wind is Friday across the southern Great Plains and peak wind is Sunday/Monday covering much of the Great Plains and East-central/Midwest U.S. Wind power generation exceeds 95% across a large area for several days.

10/18/2022, 10:15 am EDT

ECMWF Indicates an Atlantic Seaboard Subtropical Storm for Early Next Week

The southern periphery of a cold front moving off the East Coast stalls late this week, gathers low pressure and according to ECMWF organizes into a potential subtropical storm by early next week drifting northward just-off the U.S. East Coast. The GFS is weaker and farther east with this system.

10/17/2022, 4:42 am EDT

Waves of Heavy Rain Heading for Eastern Australia

More heavy rain is on the way for East Australia! Currently, weather satellite view identifies an emerging storm centered on the central south coast of Australia. A cold front is focusing thunderstorms northward to central continent. This system is the latest in a series produced by a steady trail of potent upper troughs moving across Southern Australia. The transient heavy-rain-producing troughs continue the second half of October.