09/28/2022, 3:42 pm EDT

Warmer Oceans Increasing Risk of Stronger Hurricanes

The warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation coupled with a constricting polar ice cap have caused a dramatic warm-up of mid-latitude to tropical ocean temperatures providing increased upper ocean heat igniting stronger hurricanes.
09/28/2022, 6:34 am EDT

Ian Intensifies into a Catastrophic Category-4 Major Hurricane!

Feared intensification of a recurving hurricane has occurred. Since midnight, the lowest pressure has collapsed from 952 to 942 MB indicating Ian is now a catastrophic category-4 major hurricane. The top wind is now near 140 mph. Hurricane force wind extends to 35-40 miles from the eye. Ian will move inland near Port Charlotte later today without much change in intensity.
09/26/2022, 4:57 pm EDT

A Resurgent Madden Julian Oscillation Ahead!

Madden Julian oscillation shifts to phase_4/phase_5 and strengthens over the next 2 weeks according to ECMWF. The convection pattern in the tropics of the West Pacific suggests this pattern has already developed. An increase in West Pacific tropical cyclone activity and above normal rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia to Australia is likely. Conversely, the subsidence phase of MJO shifts across South America.