North Atlantic Tropics: Projecting Another Half Dozen Events in October

A Resurgent Madden Julian Oscillation Ahead!
09/26/2022, 4:57 pm EDT
Ian Intensifies into a Catastrophic Category-4 Major Hurricane!
09/28/2022, 6:34 am EDT
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Week-2 Valid October 3-9, 2022: Several tropical cyclones are possible next week.

Discussion: Several areas are capable of producing tropical cyclones next week including off the U.S. East Coast from the Bahamas northeastward, the southern Caribbean Sea and most prominently off the West Coast of Africa.

Week-3 Valid October 10-16, 2022: Western Caribbean to Bahamas hurricane.

Discussion: As mid-October arrives climatology favors Caribbean Sea tropical cyclone generation and a north to northeast trajectory of a hurricane that turns through the Bahamas. The ECM produces that forecast which is confident for mid-month.

Week-4 Valid October 17-23, 2022: Tropical cyclone forms in the Bahamas.

Discussion: A late season tropical cyclone forming in the Bahamas is projected. This system is quickly grabbed by westerly flow aloft and propelled out-to-sea.

Week 5 Valid October 24-30, 2022: Late season tropical cyclone off the East Coast.

Discussion: Another late season storm forming in the western Caribbean Sea and moving northeastward, just-off the U.S. East Coast is projected.