10/31/2023, 3:37 pm EDT

Key Climate Diagnostics: -SOI Weakens, Surging Snow Cover, NEP23A Backs Off Coast, and +IOD Strengthens

As October 2023 closes, several climate diagnostics are notable. First, a marginally supportive of El Nino climate signature by the southern oscillation index has weakened. Second, snow cover in the northern hemisphere is ahead of schedule. Third, the marine heat wave in the Northeast Pacific has not progressed to the West Coast of North America to further enhance El Nino. Finally, an impressive +IOD pattern has emerged.
10/31/2023, 9:11 am EDT

Early Season Cold Does Not Necessarily Mean Cold Winter Ahead

A Freeze Warning is in effect for North Texas. Dallas dips to 31F tomorrow morning. During the past 10 years the earliest <32F morning in Dallas was Oct. 31 in 2019. Tomorrow will be second earliest of the past 10 years. Interestingly, both early and late dates for <32F in Dallas have been followed by warm winter seasons.
10/31/2023, 8:52 am EDT

New Research Confirms Tendency for Faster Hurricane Intensification

During the current warm AMO cycle, hurricanes are observed to intensify more rapidly when crossing over warm water. According to Andra Garner’s white paper “Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates” the number of category-1 hurricanes intensifying to a major hurricane within 36 hours has doubled in the modern warming of the North Atlantic era.
10/30/2023, 3:26 pm EDT

Unusually Expansive Wet Mid-Troposphere (For El Nino) Across Tropical Pacific

Oceanic El Nino 2023 remains moderate to strong. However, atmospheric El Nino is weaker. As an example of the weaker El Nino climate in place, the 500 MB relative humidity anomalies are somewhat wetter than normal across the entire equatorial Pacific rather than consolidated east of the Dateline typical of stronger El Nino episodes.