October 2023 - Page 2 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

10/17/2023, 5:26 pm EDT

Amazon River at Manaus Lowest in Over 100 Years as Drought Worsens

Sign of a long-term dry climate, deep layer soil moisture deficits identify where drought can intensify and where water levels/soil moisture are critically low. Manaus on the Amazon River reported their lowest river level in over one century.

10/16/2023, 9:34 am EDT

El Nino Peak Likely During Northern Hemisphere Winter

Upper ocean heat to sustain El Nino remains plentiful although weakening slightly in recent months and becoming choppy in character. Implied is that mature stage of El Nino may be just ahead.

10/16/2023, 8:52 am EDT

Climate Forecast Factors for South America Into Mid-Summer

During AUG/SEP/OCT 2023, the Amundsen Sea low has disappeared and been replaced by an upper ridge. The presence of the Amundsen Sea low (since 2016) and isolated disruption (2019 and 2023) seems to be independent of ENSO phase. The effect of this regime on Brazil rainfall for AUG/SEP/OCT is generally wetter than normal. However, during the past 3 months, Central Brazil is notably dry while rainfall has consolidated mostly in East/Southeast Brazil.

10/12/2023, 3:18 pm EDT

Longterm Brazil Rainfall Climate Review

As a reminder, the long-term ENSO cycle shifted to La Nina in the late 1990’s and has remained in-place through 2022. An El Nino has formed in 2023 but is not anticipated as a sign of ending the long-term cold ENSO cycle. The long-term cold ENSO cycle has produced a drier climate change across Brazil leading to higher susceptibility of drought and flash drought plus lowering river levels.

10/12/2023, 10:20 am EDT

North Atlantic Upper Shear Increasing Rapidly as TC Season Begins to Fade

Diverging upper air currents extending southward and into the tropics from an immense jet streak across the U.S. has increased upper shear dramatically and lowering risk of late season tropical systems. Sean was downgraded to a tropical disturbance due to this factor.

10/10/2023, 1:59 pm EDT

SEP and JUL/AUG/SEP 2023 U.S. Climate Highlights: Gulf States Torrid Heat and Drought; Soaking Wet New England

The stress on the public and infrastructure of the summer 2023 heat across the Gulf States was immense. And ideal source region for heat elsewhere, the U.S. ranked 3rd hottest in the 129-year climatology for JUL/AUG/SEP 2023. During that 3-month period, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida observed their hottest mid-to-late summer on record.

10/09/2023, 8:00 pm EDT

October 2023 Global Soil Moisture Observations And Forecast

Global soil moisture trend during Q3/2023 featured MUCH DRIER changes across already drought-stricken Mexico and into Texas plus North/Central Brazil to Argentina all related to the El Nino warm oceans of the far eastern tropical Pacific. Wetter soils were observed across the Northeast U.S. where record rainfall occurred and the Southwest U.S. In South America, El Nino-like conditions affected Southeast Brazil and Chile.

10/09/2023, 7:57 pm EDT

Weird El Nino Likely to Peak End of Year, Dissipate Next Year

The JUL/AUG multivariate ENSO index (MEI) failed to indicate evolution of an El Nino climate despite the robust oceanic El Nino presence across the equatorial East Pacific. Consequently, adjustments of the ENSO 2023-24 forecast considering MEI indicate that despite a robust warm equatorial East Pacific SSTA regime continuing to strengthen during Q4/2023, the attendant El Nino climate is likely moderate.

10/08/2023, 12:11 pm EDT

Why is Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum Negative Given El Nino Presence?

Historically, global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) has tendency to increase during El Nino due to increased vertical wind shear and upper-level wind increase in the subtropics of both hemispheres. The increased wind in the global subtropics increases GLAAM. However, despite El Nino presence in late 2023, GLAAM has shifted negative. Proposed is the unusual negative shift in GLAAM is due to the warming of the mid-latitude oceans of the past decade or so lowering or eliminating south-to-north subtropical oceanic thermal gradient, vertical wind shear, and wind aloft.

10/05/2023, 8:08 am EDT

Tropics Present High Impact Weather This Weekend and Next Week

Next week a major rainfall event is indicated across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A frontal system stalls over the northwest/north Gulf while to the south a tropical system emerges. The combination of the two events leads too heavy to extreme rain.

10/05/2023, 8:02 am EDT

Looks Warmer Than Normal for the High Demand PJM Sector for Winter Ahead

The NOV-MAR 2023-24 cold season monthly HDD forecast for selected cities within the PJM-East and PJM-West zones are warmer than normal. Due to the tendency of warmer than normal climate across the Northern U.S. during an El Nino winter, deviations from the current forecast favor warmer (not colder) solutions.

10/04/2023, 11:05 am EDT

Increased Solar Activity/Decrease in Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

A mild El Nino winter is ahead for most of the northern hemisphere. Cold air bursts can still happen, although one way to trigger arctic outbreaks (sudden stratospheric warming) is less likely to occur due to the expectation of increased solar wind in the upper atmosphere as related to increased solar activity.