The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead climate forecast for South America is updated. The forecast is based on a constructed analog rooted in regional SSTA regimes and their historical upper air patterns. Highlights include the likely evolution of Central Brazil drought during summer 2023-24 possibly expanding eastward during early autumn. Wet climate shifts into Northeast Argentina easing long-term drought in that region.

Deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits are often caused by lack of rainfall over a lengthy (at least 9 months) time-period. This condition generally involves drought development at the surface and potential for flash drought if a dry and anomalous hot weather pattern settles over the area. Dramatic events are inspired by these conditions.