10/12/2023, 10:20 am EDT

North Atlantic Upper Shear Increasing Rapidly as TC Season Begins to Fade

Diverging upper air currents extending southward and into the tropics from an immense jet streak across the U.S. has increased upper shear dramatically and lowering risk of late season tropical systems. Sean was downgraded to a tropical disturbance due to this factor.
10/10/2023, 1:59 pm EDT

SEP and JUL/AUG/SEP 2023 U.S. Climate Highlights: Gulf States Torrid Heat and Drought; Soaking Wet New England

The stress on the public and infrastructure of the summer 2023 heat across the Gulf States was immense. And ideal source region for heat elsewhere, the U.S. ranked 3rd hottest in the 129-year climatology for JUL/AUG/SEP 2023. During that 3-month period, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida observed their hottest mid-to-late summer on record.
10/09/2023, 8:00 pm EDT

October 2023 Global Soil Moisture Observations And Forecast

Global soil moisture trend during Q3/2023 featured MUCH DRIER changes across already drought-stricken Mexico and into Texas plus North/Central Brazil to Argentina all related to the El Nino warm oceans of the far eastern tropical Pacific. Wetter soils were observed across the Northeast U.S. where record rainfall occurred and the Southwest U.S. In South America, El Nino-like conditions affected Southeast Brazil and Chile.
10/09/2023, 7:57 pm EDT

Weird El Nino Likely to Peak End of Year, Dissipate Next Year

The JUL/AUG multivariate ENSO index (MEI) failed to indicate evolution of an El Nino climate despite the robust oceanic El Nino presence across the equatorial East Pacific. Consequently, adjustments of the ENSO 2023-24 forecast considering MEI indicate that despite a robust warm equatorial East Pacific SSTA regime continuing to strengthen during Q4/2023, the attendant El Nino climate is likely moderate.