10/08/2023, 12:11 pm EDT

Why is Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum Negative Given El Nino Presence?

Historically, global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) has tendency to increase during El Nino due to increased vertical wind shear and upper-level wind increase in the subtropics of both hemispheres. The increased wind in the global subtropics increases GLAAM. However, despite El Nino presence in late 2023, GLAAM has shifted negative. Proposed is the unusual negative shift in GLAAM is due to the warming of the mid-latitude oceans of the past decade or so lowering or eliminating south-to-north subtropical oceanic thermal gradient, vertical wind shear, and wind aloft.   
10/05/2023, 8:08 am EDT

Tropics Present High Impact Weather This Weekend and Next Week

Next week a major rainfall event is indicated across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A frontal system stalls over the northwest/north Gulf while to the south a tropical system emerges. The combination of the two events leads too heavy to extreme rain.
10/05/2023, 8:02 am EDT

Looks Warmer Than Normal for the High Demand PJM Sector for Winter Ahead

The NOV-MAR 2023-24 cold season monthly HDD forecast for selected cities within the PJM-East and PJM-West zones are warmer than normal. Due to the tendency of warmer than normal climate across the Northern U.S. during an El Nino winter, deviations from the current forecast favor warmer (not colder) solutions.
10/04/2023, 11:05 am EDT

Increased Solar Activity/Decrease in Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

A mild El Nino winter is ahead for most of the northern hemisphere. Cold air bursts can still happen, although one way to trigger arctic outbreaks (sudden stratospheric warming) is less likely to occur due to the expectation of increased solar wind in the upper atmosphere as related to increased solar activity.