10/17/2023, 5:26 pm EDT

Amazon River at Manaus Lowest in Over 100 Years as Drought Worsens

Sign of a long-term dry climate, deep layer soil moisture deficits identify where drought can intensify and where water levels/soil moisture are critically low. Manaus on the Amazon River reported their lowest river level in over one century.
10/16/2023, 9:34 am EDT

El Nino Peak Likely During Northern Hemisphere Winter

Upper ocean heat to sustain El Nino remains plentiful although weakening slightly in recent months and becoming choppy in character. Implied is that mature stage of El Nino may be just ahead.
10/16/2023, 8:52 am EDT

Climate Forecast Factors for South America Into Mid-Summer

During AUG/SEP/OCT 2023, the Amundsen Sea low has disappeared and been replaced by an upper ridge. The presence of the Amundsen Sea low (since 2016) and isolated disruption (2019 and 2023) seems to be independent of ENSO phase. The effect of this regime on Brazil rainfall for AUG/SEP/OCT is generally wetter than normal. However, during the past 3 months, Central Brazil is notably dry while rainfall has consolidated mostly in East/Southeast Brazil.
10/12/2023, 3:18 pm EDT

Longterm Brazil Rainfall Climate Review

As a reminder, the long-term ENSO cycle shifted to La Nina in the late 1990’s and has remained in-place through 2022. An El Nino has formed in 2023 but is not anticipated as a sign of ending the long-term cold ENSO cycle. The long-term cold ENSO cycle has produced a drier climate change across Brazil leading to higher susceptibility of drought and flash drought plus lowering river levels.