March 2021 - Climate Impact Company

03/30/2021, 2:55 pm EDT

Gas/Power Market Notes: A Look At Summer CDD’s

The preliminary outlook indicates MAY-SEP 2021 is hotter than last year as the average of the U.S. cities CDD forecast is about 112% of the 30-year normal compared to just-under 109% last year. Meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) is not quite as hot as last year.

03/30/2021, 7:39 am EDT

Australia Bureau of Meteorology Ends La Nina

Australia Bureau of Meteorology ended La Nina 2020-21 today. SSTA in the equatorial East Pacific remains marginally cool however upper ocean heat to support La Nina’s survival is disappearing fast. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO forecast indicates neutral ENSO ahead for the middle third of 2021.

03/29/2021, 10:27 am EDT

Nino SSTA Regions Trend Cooler Last Week

Last week southern oscillation index returned to weak positive phase and trade winds off the northwest coast of South America also returned. As a result, the increased trade winds up-welled cool waters to cause all Nino SSTA regions to fall to within La Nina thresholds. However, the subsurface at 75+ meters continue to warm and subsurface cool water supply to sustain La Nina is steadily losing amplitude.

03/24/2021, 8:13 am EDT

The Gulf of Mexico LOOP Current Contributes to Louisiana/Mississippi Flooding Rainfall

The Loop Current is unusually active in the Gulf of Mexico SSTA pattern right now causing an area of very warm water to gather just-off the southeast coast of Louisiana where the current undergoes the east turn. The pool of very warm water has caused the low-level atmosphere in this region to become unusually moist.

03/23/2021, 8:30 am EDT

Historic East Australia Rainfall

A titanic blocking high-pressure ridge south-southeast of Australia during the past 5+ days forced a deep upper trough to form along the southern Australia Coast this past weekend and into this week. Tropical moisture entrained into the upper trough from a warmer-than-normal water surface north and northeast of the continent lead to the 60-year flooding episode in Sydney and surrounding areas.

03/22/2021, 10:31 am EDT

Emerging Kelvin Wave Shifting Eastward: A La Nina Killer!

Suddenly, the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming rapidly as a Kelvin Wave emerges and is shifting east. Implied is a more certain dissipation of La Nina ahead. If another Kelvin Wave were to follow during Q2 of 2021 an El Nino risk emerges.

03/22/2021, 9:40 am EDT

The Mid-summer 2012 Flash Drought in the Central Great Plains

The flash drought/excessive heat regime observed in July 2012 was centered on the central Great Plains with attendant heat spread across most of the U.S. Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois observed all-time top-5 driest mid-summer months on record. The drought condition came on fast most likely due to developing high-pressure aloft across a vast area of deep layer soil moisture deficit. Despite the wet soils in parts of the Great Plains a dry Q2 of 2021 climate is forecast and 2012 is a summer 2021 analog forecast year.

03/22/2021, 4:36 am EDT

Eastern Australia Deluge Continues

Heavy rains have caused widespread flooding across New South Wales this weekend due to a moist onshore tropical flow into a low-pressure trough made more intense by a blocking high-pressure area to the south. A low-pressure area has formed along the low-pressure trough in far northwest New South Wales.

03/18/2021, 9:43 am EDT

A Hot Summer Ahead for the U.S.

Today NOAA/CPC issued new long-lead probabilistic climate forecasts. Of interest, is the summertime outlook. The temperature probability forecast indicates above normal risk of anomalous warmth for all states during JUN/JUL/AUG 2021 with highest risk across the Southwest States.

03/16/2021, 11:21 am EDT

Stratospheric Warming on The East Coast in Late March

NOAA/CPC is indicating a fairly robust stratospheric warming event centered on the U.S. East Coast at the end of March. Although not in the ideal polar location, the event would be enough to cause the troposphere below to cool.

03/15/2021, 11:52 am EDT

SSTA Pattern Heading Toward Neutral ENSO

The February MJO had a profound influence on the environment of the equatorial East Pacific. The (MJO) event shut-down trade winds which eased the up-welling of cool subsurface water to maintain La Nina intensity.

03/14/2021, 10:45 am EDT

Heavy Snows, Severe Weather and Cold Bursts Start The Week

A busy Sunday across the U.S. featuring adverse last-gasp winter weather events. A major Central U.S. storm continues…heavy snows across the central Rocky Mountains including blizzard conditions in Wyoming to western Nebraska while flooding from weekend rains continues across Kansas and Missouri.