03/03/2021, 10:24 am EST

U.S. Winter 2020-21 Heating Degree Day Pattern

The cold season started with a warm November followed by a December which was also warm coming-in near the 10-year normal. Mid-winter was very warm, almost as warm as November regarding the HDD departure. February is the only cold month of the season while March is projected warmer than normal. The tendency for extremes dominated as observed with a very warm November and January and a frigid February.
03/02/2021, 11:22 am EST

Madden Julian Oscillation To Regain Strength/Influence on Climate

As a reminder, the reason the MJO is tracked is due to its presence with intensity almost always leads to weather extremes including major storms at the longitude of the MJO location frequently with upstream/downstream (in the middle latitudes) effects. The arctic outbreak in February was triggered by emergence of an active MJO pattern near the Dateline.
03/01/2021, 10:03 am EST

La Nina Remains Choppy But Subsurface East Pacific is Warming

La Nina’s SSTA observations in the Nino regions near and east of the Dateline are fluctuating each week as La Nina classification is “unsteady”. The upper ocean heat in February indicates warming took place implying the subsurface cool waters to sustain La Nina is diminishing.