03/23/2021, 8:30 am EDT

Historic East Australia Rainfall

A titanic blocking high-pressure ridge south-southeast of Australia during the past 5+ days forced a deep upper trough to form along the southern Australia Coast this past weekend and into this week. Tropical moisture entrained into the upper trough from a warmer-than-normal water surface north and northeast of the continent lead to the 60-year flooding episode in Sydney and surrounding areas.
03/22/2021, 10:31 am EDT

Emerging Kelvin Wave Shifting Eastward: A La Nina Killer!

Suddenly, the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming rapidly as a Kelvin Wave emerges and is shifting east. Implied is a more certain dissipation of La Nina ahead. If another Kelvin Wave were to follow during Q2 of 2021 an El Nino risk emerges.
03/22/2021, 9:40 am EDT

The Mid-summer 2012 Flash Drought in the Central Great Plains

The flash drought/excessive heat regime observed in July 2012 was centered on the central Great Plains with attendant heat spread across most of the U.S. Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois observed all-time top-5 driest mid-summer months on record. The drought condition came on fast most likely due to developing high-pressure aloft across a vast area of deep layer soil moisture deficit. Despite the wet soils in parts of the Great Plains a dry Q2 of 2021 climate is forecast and 2012 is a summer 2021 analog forecast year.
03/22/2021, 4:36 am EDT

Eastern Australia Deluge Continues

Heavy rains have caused widespread flooding across New South Wales this weekend due to a moist onshore tropical flow into a low-pressure trough made more intense by a blocking high-pressure area to the south. A low-pressure area has formed along the low-pressure trough in far northwest New South Wales.