07/31/2023, 1:47 pm EDT

El Nino Strengthening, Northern Oceans Are Very Warm!

The Nino34 SSTA warmed to +1.2C last week as oceanic El Nino strengthens to moderate intensity. The ENSO climate budged toward El Nino in July as supported by a 2-to-3-week period of a negative southern oscillation index (-SOI) although SOI has shifted into weak positive phase the past 2 days.
07/31/2023, 7:57 am EDT

Solar Maxima, El Nino Climate, and Record Warm Ocean for Winter 2023-24 Ahead

Yet another surprise, likely unknown is ahead for the winter 2023-24 northern hemisphere winter. For the first time in recorded history, the combination of an over-achieving solar maxima, El Nino climate, and much warmer than normal ocean surface is likely to drive the winter 2023-24 northern hemisphere climate pattern.
07/30/2023, 12:51 pm EDT

Cool Northern U.S. Pattern Change But Will It Last?

In 10-15 days, possible changes are looming. The global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) pattern may flip negative for the first time during the summer season signaling a slowdown in the upper air pattern. If so, recent much warmer GFS 11-15-day forecasts and the ECM 16-20/16-30-day forecasts may regenerate another fierce hot upper ridge pattern for mid-to-late August.
07/30/2023, 12:43 pm EDT

Monitoring 2 systems in the North Atlantic While El Nino Climate is Developing

It’s still early, the most active part of tropical cyclone season is a few days away (Aug. 1st), but today’s analysis is reminiscent of past El Nino years in the modern climate (since the mid-to-late 1990’s) when tropical activity was biased to the East Coast or outer Atlantic especially during stronger El Nino.