Due to a delayed atmospheric El Nino and record warm North Atlantic, the North Atlantic basin seasonal forecast is revised. The updated forecast projects 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. Previously, only 3 seasons have produced 20 (or more) tropical cyclones. If 2023 observes 20 tropical cyclones, 3 of the past 4 years will have managed that achievement.

Daily SSTA analysis off the U.S. East Coast reveal a dramatic warm-up. Currently, the western North Atlantic basin is a whopping +1.02C with warmest anomalies off the Northeast Corridor coastline. Other very warm SSTA observations are indicated from the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas. During the past 30 days, the warm signature indicated now has developed.

The multivariate ENSO index (MEI) for MAY/JUN was +0.2 which indicates the global climate as related to ENSO phase is neutral. However, the conventional measure of ENSO phase, the Nino34 SSTA region, reached the El Nino threshold (+0.5C) in May and strengthened (+0.9C) in June.