The expected onset of positive phase Indian ocean Dipole by JUL/AUG 2023 is delayed. The issue is the vertical motion in the tropical Indian/Pacific Ocean(s) is not well-correlated with an El Nino climate which would drive +IOD evolution. Until the El Nino climate pattern develops (AUG/SEP), +IOD will be delayed and the longer the delay the more likely +IOD is not as strong as currently forecast by most dynamic models.

Due to a delayed atmospheric El Nino and record warm North Atlantic, the North Atlantic basin seasonal forecast is revised. The updated forecast projects 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. Previously, only 3 seasons have produced 20 (or more) tropical cyclones. If 2023 observes 20 tropical cyclones, 3 of the past 4 years will have managed that achievement.

Daily SSTA analysis off the U.S. East Coast reveal a dramatic warm-up. Currently, the western North Atlantic basin is a whopping +1.02C with warmest anomalies off the Northeast Corridor coastline. Other very warm SSTA observations are indicated from the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas. During the past 30 days, the warm signature indicated now has developed.