07/11/2023, 11:19 am EDT

The Lack of El Nino Climate (so far) Inhibits +IOD Evolution

The expected onset of positive phase Indian ocean Dipole by JUL/AUG 2023 is delayed. The issue is the vertical motion in the tropical Indian/Pacific Ocean(s) is not well-correlated with an El Nino climate which would drive +IOD evolution. Until the El Nino climate pattern develops (AUG/SEP), +IOD will be delayed and the longer the delay the more likely +IOD is not as strong as currently forecast by most dynamic models.
07/10/2023, 8:11 am EDT

GFS Roars Hot In 11-15-Day Forecast for Midwest!

Today's medium-range forecast utilized the ECM ENS as the best model to identify expected medium/extended-range thermal/rainfall patterns across the U.S. However, the 00Z GFS roared hot weather into the Midwest U.S. causing a close watch by commodity markets on the U.S. AG Belt where ongoing drought is located.
07/10/2023, 8:03 am EDT

Significant Increase in Projected North Atlantic Basin 2023 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Due to a delayed atmospheric El Nino and record warm North Atlantic, the North Atlantic basin seasonal forecast is revised. The updated forecast projects 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. Previously, only 3 seasons have produced 20 (or more) tropical cyclones. If 2023 observes 20 tropical cyclones, 3 of the past 4 years will have managed that achievement.
07/09/2023, 2:05 pm EDT

PJM-East to Roar Hot to Finish Meteorological Summer

Daily SSTA analysis off the U.S. East Coast reveal a dramatic warm-up. Currently, the western North Atlantic basin is a whopping +1.02C with warmest anomalies off the Northeast Corridor coastline. Other very warm SSTA observations are indicated from the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas. During the past 30 days, the warm signature indicated now has developed.