07/30/2023, 12:43 pm EDT

Monitoring 2 systems in the North Atlantic While El Nino Climate is Developing

It’s still early, the most active part of tropical cyclone season is a few days away (Aug. 1st), but today’s analysis is reminiscent of past El Nino years in the modern climate (since the mid-to-late 1990’s) when tropical activity was biased to the East Coast or outer Atlantic especially during stronger El Nino.
07/25/2023, 5:32 am EDT

Heavy Rains Heading for Europe

Pattern change brings copious rainfall to Europe over the next 15 days with 3-5 in. indicated by ECM ENS across the South-central Mountains and parts of Eastern Europe. Of course, the wet weather is accompanied by cooler than normal temperatures. Southeast Europe misses the rain and cooler regime.
07/25/2023, 5:30 am EDT

Midwest U.S. Drought Worsening Again

Yesterday’s rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) analysis from NOAA/CPC revealed the Midwest U.S. Drought worsened last week. Short-term forecasts indicate searing heat risk increase and limited rainfall ahead into next week as the drought will continue to worsen.
07/24/2023, 11:50 am EDT

Atmospheric El Nino Climate Continues to Lag Oceanic El Nino

Oceanic El Nino continues to slowly strengthen and is now at moderate intensity. Subsurface warming is convening in the eastern equatorial Pacific to provide more ammunition to strengthen El Nino. However, the sustained 1-2-month-long negative southern oscillation index required to generate an El Nino climate has not yet materialized.