07/18/2023, 2:15 pm EDT

Record Warm Global Temperatures Caused by Marine Heat Waves

Increasing attention is given to the recent uptick to large regions of oceanic warming outside of the tropical region. Marine heat waves are present across much of the middle/subtropical latitudes in both hemispheres causing a record warm ocean surface according to the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine. Certainly, the evolution of an increasingly bold El Nino and recent near onset of positive phase Indian Ocean dipole has helped. The oceanic warming in the middle latitudes has caused warming aloft to increase high-pressure ridging to deliver hot weather to populated land masses for mid-summer in the northern hemisphere.     
07/17/2023, 3:08 pm EDT

Active MJO develops, should strengthen El Nino.

Further negative phase strengthening is expected as the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) activates and shifts east through the equatorial Pacific over the next 1-2 weeks and farther east across the Atlantic tropics in early August. The activated MJO/SOI combination should shutdown trade winds in the equatorial Pacific to allow warming of the surface and strengthen El Nino heading into August.
07/16/2023, 12:37 pm EDT

The Wetter Pattern Change in the Northeast U.S.

After a relatively dry and cool spring in the Northeast U.S. Corridor, the weather pattern has changed dramatically. During July so far, the Northeast U.S. has shifted 1-3C warmer than normal while flooding rainfall events have emerged. The rainfall events are producing historical flooding in Vermont and widening toward central and southern New England today.
07/13/2023, 9:50 am EDT

Northern Gulf of Mexico is Cooling off

The North Atlantic basin is record warm. The Gulf of Mexico is also somewhat warmer than normal averaging 1.0C above normal. However, during the past week the waters just off the northern Gulf Coast have cooled significantly.
07/13/2023, 9:42 am EDT

Over-achieving Solar Cycle 25 Continues!

The risk of disruption to radio and satellite communications as well as power grids may increase if solar cycle 25 continues to over-achieve in intensity heading for maxima in 2025.
07/11/2023, 2:03 pm EDT

Regional Differences but June 2023 Was (Nationally) Near Normal

June 2023 ranked 52nd warmest and 48th driest (of 129 years). The “near average” national rank was made by varying regional temperature and precipitation. The Mid-Atlantic region observed a top 10% cool regime including the 10th coolest on record in Virginia.
07/11/2023, 11:19 am EDT

The Lack of El Nino Climate (so far) Inhibits +IOD Evolution

The expected onset of positive phase Indian ocean Dipole by JUL/AUG 2023 is delayed. The issue is the vertical motion in the tropical Indian/Pacific Ocean(s) is not well-correlated with an El Nino climate which would drive +IOD evolution. Until the El Nino climate pattern develops (AUG/SEP), +IOD will be delayed and the longer the delay the more likely +IOD is not as strong as currently forecast by most dynamic models.
07/10/2023, 8:11 am EDT

GFS Roars Hot In 11-15-Day Forecast for Midwest!

Today's medium-range forecast utilized the ECM ENS as the best model to identify expected medium/extended-range thermal/rainfall patterns across the U.S. However, the 00Z GFS roared hot weather into the Midwest U.S. causing a close watch by commodity markets on the U.S. AG Belt where ongoing drought is located.
07/10/2023, 8:03 am EDT

Significant Increase in Projected North Atlantic Basin 2023 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Due to a delayed atmospheric El Nino and record warm North Atlantic, the North Atlantic basin seasonal forecast is revised. The updated forecast projects 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. Previously, only 3 seasons have produced 20 (or more) tropical cyclones. If 2023 observes 20 tropical cyclones, 3 of the past 4 years will have managed that achievement.
07/09/2023, 2:05 pm EDT

PJM-East to Roar Hot to Finish Meteorological Summer

Daily SSTA analysis off the U.S. East Coast reveal a dramatic warm-up. Currently, the western North Atlantic basin is a whopping +1.02C with warmest anomalies off the Northeast Corridor coastline. Other very warm SSTA observations are indicated from the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas. During the past 30 days, the warm signature indicated now has developed.
07/06/2023, 9:05 pm EDT

Unexpectedly Wet During June Northwest to Southeast Australia

Although an expected +IOD and El Nino climate pattern are expected and each should produce a dry climate for Australia, the month of June 2023 was quite wet arcing from northwest to southeast continent. The +IOD and El Nino climate patterns remain 1-3 months away!
07/06/2023, 8:21 am EDT

Atmospheric El Nino Lagging Oceanic El Nino

The multivariate ENSO index (MEI) for MAY/JUN was +0.2 which indicates the global climate as related to ENSO phase is neutral. However, the conventional measure of ENSO phase, the Nino34 SSTA region, reached the El Nino threshold (+0.5C) in May and strengthened (+0.9C) in June.