07/19/2023, 4:59 am EDT

U.S. Heatwave to Expand to Midwest and Mid-Atlantic U.S. and Midwest Drought to Re-intensify

The historic California, Southwest U.S., and Texas heatwave of mid-July will expand across the U.S. to close the month. The risk of >100F shifts across much of the Great Plains to the Mid-south States in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, the risk of >100F shifts eastward through the southern Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic States.
07/18/2023, 2:16 pm EDT

Record Warm Global Temperatures Caused by Marine Heat Waves

07/18/2023, 2:15 pm EDT

Record Warm Global Temperatures Caused by Marine Heat Waves

Increasing attention is given to the recent uptick to large regions of oceanic warming outside of the tropical region. Marine heat waves are present across much of the middle/subtropical latitudes in both hemispheres causing a record warm ocean surface according to the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine. Certainly, the evolution of an increasingly bold El Nino and recent near onset of positive phase Indian Ocean dipole has helped. The oceanic warming in the middle latitudes has caused warming aloft to increase high-pressure ridging to deliver hot weather to populated land masses for mid-summer in the northern hemisphere.     
07/17/2023, 3:08 pm EDT

Active MJO develops, should strengthen El Nino.

Further negative phase strengthening is expected as the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) activates and shifts east through the equatorial Pacific over the next 1-2 weeks and farther east across the Atlantic tropics in early August. The activated MJO/SOI combination should shutdown trade winds in the equatorial Pacific to allow warming of the surface and strengthen El Nino heading into August.