Northern Gulf of Mexico is Cooling off

Highlight: 94L may still develop otherwise ALL CLEAR.

Fig. 1: Satellite view of the North Atlantic basin and primary features.

Today’s discussion: Upper shear across the Caribbean Sea increased slightly since yesterday. The upper shear in the subtropics is weak. Tropical Disturbance 94L drifts generally eastward with a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next few days (Fig. 1). The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) reveal a robust warm (+1.0C) regime (Fig. 2) although the northern Gulf has cooled off during the past 7 days (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2-3: The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature anomalies and 7-day change.