January 2026 - Climate Impact Company

News

01/21/2026, 4:43 pm EST

MJO Shift Favors Wetter Brazil Pattern Ahead

As the Madden Julian oscillation shifts eastward through the longitudes of the Americas, a wetter bias to the Brazil weather pattern unfolds. The recent dry regime shifts wetter for later January and early February while Northeast Argentina is drier and hotter.

01/21/2026, 1:00 pm EST

Week-4 AI HDD Forecasts from Early January Were Very Cold for Last Week of January

The U.S. HDD outlook in today’s week-4 outlook is colder than normal utilizing a consensus between AI 4CastNet V2 ECM ENS, AI 4CastNet V2 GFS ENS, and AI Graph Cast ECM ENS. The CFS V2/ECM consensus is warmer. Of interest is the record strength 295 HDD forecast for the last week of January from overnight compared to week-4 forecasts made earlier this month. AI was much colder than the CFS V2/ECM consensus.

01/21/2026, 6:09 am EST

Incoming Arctic Air Triggers Major Snow and Ice Storm South and East U.S.

Along an arctic air boundary, a major ice storm develops Friday across the southern Great Plains extending to the Mid-south U.S. and quickly eastward Saturday into the Carolinas. The Interior Southeast is also affected. Ice accretion of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is possible in this stretch which will cause widespread power outages. Heavy snows extend from the southern Great Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Jackpot snows (18-21 inches) are forecast for Virginia. Southeast New England is added to the heavy snow risk.

01/20/2026, 12:54 pm EST

East Pacific Surface Warms Slightly; Subsurface Warming Eases Back Slightly

The equatorial subsurface warmed during the past few weeks although losing some intensity as mid-January approaches. Also losing intensity is remnant cool waters in the subsurface off the northwest coast of South America.