U.S. gas population weight HDD forecasts through 6 weeks from late December correctly identified the warmer early-to-middle January warmer trend although not as warm as observed. Today’s projection for the current week is MUCH warmer than forecast in late December and possibly the largest reason for natural gas price collapse late last week. Projections for week-4 are near the 30-year normal, somewhat less cold than both CFS/ECM and AI indicated from 2 weeks ago.

Historic warmth of the Northeast Pacific along the U.S. West Coast to Baja California is attributed to two climate patterns affecting NW/West HYDRO: 1.) Long duration dry high-pressure ridge (as expected during the next 3 weeks); 2.) Over-achieving precipitation producers as seen with the recent atmospheric river, a pattern that may return in February. 70% of the U.S. is affected by dry-to-drought conditions caused in-part by an 18-month La Nina climate as identified by multi-variate ENSO index. The outlooks for spring indicate significant drought potential for the southeast quadrant of the U.S.

ECMWF and CIC-CA U.S. wind forecasts for JAN-26 to MAR-26 are compared to establish forecast confidence. Indicated are above average forecast confidence for greater than normal windspeeds Interior West for the current month with disagreement in the Southeast, especially Florida where ECMWF indicates lighter than normal windspeed and CIC-CA is above normal.

An impactful influence on global climate by a strengthening convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to develop during the next 2 weeks. The location across the tropical Pacific from north-northeast of Australia to just east of the Dateline (phase_6).

The last pulse of convection phase Madden Julian oscillation (+MJO) was observed during November across the eastern tropical Indian Ocean to north of Australia. The event was immense, causing many late season tropical cyclones, and eventually a latent heat release poleward to the polar stratosphere. In December, the warming stratosphere shifted over Canada igniting an arctic outbreak. Since that time, MJO has been dormant. However, in a forecast change, the 2-week MJO forecast utilizing all models indicates a moderate intensity phase_6 of the +MJO develops which will cause several important impacts on weather and climate.