MJO East Shift Brings Wetter Bias to South America Last 1/3 of Month
01/11/2026, 11:54 am EST
Long Duration -AO Pattern Eventually Supports Cold Return to North/East U.S.
01/13/2026, 4:07 am EST
Climate Impact Company Weekly ENSO Climate Diagnostics
Issued: Monday January 12, 2026
Highlight: Kelvin wave shifting eastward and strengthening.
Fig. 1: The current upper ocean heat analysis across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Discussion: An impressive looking Kelvin Wave has moved east of the Dateline and has strengthened (Fig. 1). Cool waters remain in the subsurface off the northwest coast of South America fueling La Nina cool signatures in the Nino SSTA regions (Fig. 2). The Kelvin Wave is moving directly at the lingering cool water and appears likely to reach the northwest coast of South America in 2-3 weeks. Once the Kelvin Wave reaches the coastal northwest of South America, La Nina will dissipate.
Fig. 2: The 12-week monitoring of the Nino SSTA regions and subsurface temperature anomaly schemes across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.