Eastern Equatorial Pacific is Now Record Warm!

Climate Impact Company Weekly ENSO Climate Diagnostics

Issued: Tuesday September 8, 2026

Highlight: Eastern equatorial Pacific is now record warm!

Discussion: Last week, the Nino12 SSTA warmed to +4.6C and Nino3 SSTA surged to +3.5C combining for the warmest equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies on record (Fig. 1). In the Nino34 SSTA region, where ENSO phase is assessed, conventional Nino34 SSTA is +2.7C qualifying as Super El Nino while the new relative Nino34 SSTA index is +1.8C just below the Super El Nino threshold. Consequently, Climate Impact Company classifies El Nino 2026 as “Strong to Super” intensity with all dynamic models maintaining “Super” El Nino for later this year. Given the record warmth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface (Fig. 2), the proposed record strength El Nino for Q4/2026 seems certain. The southern oscillation index (SOI) recently returned to near neutral reversing to strong negative phase in recent days supportive of “Super” El Nino climate (Fig. 3).

Fig. 1: The 12-week monitor of the Nino SSTA regions indicates record warm Nino12/Nino3.

Fig. 2: The record warm subsurface equatorial East Pacific.

Fig. 3: Strong negative southern oscillation index, supportive of Super El Nino, regenerates.