March 2026 - Climate Impact Company

News

03/31/2026, 6:51 am EDT

AIFS ENS 15-Day Temperature Forecast Bias across North America

Climate Impact Company utilizes the ECM ENS and AIFS ENS for most medium-range temperature anomaly forecasts due to their consistent no. 1 and 2 skill score ranking. During the past 30 days, the temperature forecast bias for 15-day forecasts has generally been too warm for Canada and too cool for parts of the U.S. The ECM ENS bias is stronger than AIFS ENS.

03/30/2026, 1:52 pm EDT

ENSO Remains Neutral; Subsurface is Bubbling Hot!

Last week, the Nino4 SSTA warmed too above the El Nino threshold. The Nino4 region is located on either side of the Dateline and the warming in this region is a southwestward expansion of surface warming associated with an intense marine heatwave off the West Coast of North America.

03/29/2026, 10:32 am EDT

The Largest U.S. Climate Problem? Western U.S. Water Supply!

Record low snowpack provides much below normal snowmelt and river inflows sustaining and intensifying a water supply drought across much of the West U.S.. The intensified snow drought of winter 2026-27 and the attendant record warm temperatures was inspired by persistent intense high pressure ridging in the upper atmosphere across and downwind the highest aerial coverage of a marine heatwave (MHW) on record in the Northeast Pacific.

03/27/2026, 8:59 am EDT

Madden Julian Oscillation is Progressive, Uncertain Influence on U.S. (Potentially) Wet Pattern

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is key to the forecast and indicates a transitional 2-week pattern, unable to establish a tropical connection to the U.S. precipitation pattern. However, the southern oscillation index (SOI) finally shifts to negative phase in April which indicates El Nino should organize and a wet bias in the southern latitudes acting as a moisture source for the Great Plains could generate.