March 2026 - Climate Impact Company

03/31/2026, 6:51 am EDT

AIFS ENS 15-Day Temperature Forecast Bias across North America

Climate Impact Company utilizes the ECM ENS and AIFS ENS for most medium-range temperature anomaly forecasts due to their consistent no. 1 and 2 skill score ranking. During the past 30 days, the temperature forecast bias for 15-day forecasts has generally been too warm for Canada and too cool for parts of the U.S. The ECM ENS bias is stronger than AIFS ENS.

03/30/2026, 1:52 pm EDT

ENSO Remains Neutral; Subsurface is Bubbling Hot!

Last week, the Nino4 SSTA warmed too above the El Nino threshold. The Nino4 region is located on either side of the Dateline and the warming in this region is a southwestward expansion of surface warming associated with an intense marine heatwave off the West Coast of North America.

03/29/2026, 10:32 am EDT

The Largest U.S. Climate Problem? Western U.S. Water Supply!

Record low snowpack provides much below normal snowmelt and river inflows sustaining and intensifying a water supply drought across much of the West U.S.. The intensified snow drought of winter 2026-27 and the attendant record warm temperatures was inspired by persistent intense high pressure ridging in the upper atmosphere across and downwind the highest aerial coverage of a marine heatwave (MHW) on record in the Northeast Pacific.

03/27/2026, 8:59 am EDT

Madden Julian Oscillation is Progressive, Uncertain Influence on U.S. (Potentially) Wet Pattern

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is key to the forecast and indicates a transitional 2-week pattern, unable to establish a tropical connection to the U.S. precipitation pattern. However, the southern oscillation index (SOI) finally shifts to negative phase in April which indicates El Nino should organize and a wet bias in the southern latitudes acting as a moisture source for the Great Plains could generate.

03/26/2026, 12:43 pm EDT

Tonight’s Ohio Valley Severe Weather Peak Intensity/Timing

The Ohio Valley eastward to Pennsylvania is within a significant level of severe weather risk for later today and tonight. HRRR projects strongest radar returns between 7-8PM EDT specifically for North-central Illinois and Indiana to Northern Ohio toward Pittsburgh, PA. In this stretch and slightly southward is the greatest risk of tornadoes. By late evening, the squall line is slightly less intense although aerial coverage broadens through the northern Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England.

03/26/2026, 8:36 am EDT

The U.S. Precipitation Pattern Shifts Wetter

About 75% of the U.S. is experiencing dry-to-drought conditions. Impactful wetter trend is occurring in the Great Lakes region and vicinity in March while most of the dry soil zones are missing important precipitation. The 15-day outlook for the U.S. offers significant rainfall in the Mid-south States, more wet weather for the soaking wet Great Lakes region, but is mostly dry and shifting drier for the western Great Plains where drought is forecast to expand during late spring.

03/26/2026, 8:34 am EDT

Moderate-to-Strong +IOD Forecast to Emerge With El Nino Mid-to-late 2026

Although remaining within the ENSO prediction barrier (EPB) strongest during MAR/APR, most dynamic models are projecting a moderate-to-strong El Nino to emerge mid-to-late 2026. Coinciding with the strong El Nino, is a projection of positive phase Indian Ocean dipole.

03/25/2026, 11:59 am EDT

Cooling Surface and Subsurface in the North Atlantic Tropics Coupled with 2026 El Nino Could Produce Quiet 2026 TC Season

The North Atlantic basin is marginally warmer than normal (+0.33C) and similar with this time last year. However, in the lower latitudes, the Caribbean Sea, and main development region (MDR) are somewhat cooler than last year at this time. The Gulf of Mexico basin is near +0.4C although nearly 1C cooler than one month ago. Upper ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico and main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes is second coolest in the 2013-26 climatology.

03/24/2026, 12:27 pm EDT

AI Research: Check On 2-Meter Temperature Forecast Skill Scores for NA, EU, SA, and AU Past 30 Days

During the past 30 days, 2-meter temperature forecasts verification skill scores (using anomaly correlation) reveal best skill is across South America trailed by a tie between North America and Europe with Australia in last place.

03/23/2026, 9:59 am EDT

Narelle To Re-Intensify; Strikes West Coast Late Week

Tropical Storm Narelle rests over the coastal northwest portion of Australia soon to move offshore and begin to redevelop. In 4-5 days, Narelle reaches category-2 or category-3 intensity moving into the northwest coast of Western Australia. Through 10 days, the West Coast region of Australia is very wet.

03/23/2026, 8:24 am EDT

Northwest HYDRO Outlook: Reconsidering the “Warm Blob” Influence

Required is a review of the upper air patterns from the 2014-16 “warm blob” years for the PNA region during APR/MAY and JUN/JUL to help time maximum snowmelt/water runoff in key Southwest Canada HYDRO locations. The 2026 “warm blob” has record strength aerial coverage making the 2014-16 “warm blob" years a reasonable analog.

03/23/2026, 6:43 am EDT

Most Likely Scenario for Q2/2026 is Drought Expansion West into Central U.S.

Although forecast models vary and consider possible improvement in U.S. soil moisture by late calendar spring, the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) favors an expansive dry-to-drought pattern for both the West and Central U.S. Forecast confidence is near to above normal on weakening drought risk across the eastern third of the nation and strengthening drought across the West U.S. to Texas. However, forecast confidence is near to below average for the Central U.S. dry outlook.