During the past 30 days, 2-meter temperature forecasts verification skill scores (using anomaly correlation) reveal best skill is across South America trailed by a tie between North America and Europe with Australia in last place.

Although forecast models vary and consider possible improvement in U.S. soil moisture by late calendar spring, the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) favors an expansive dry-to-drought pattern for both the West and Central U.S. Forecast confidence is near to above normal on weakening drought risk across the eastern third of the nation and strengthening drought across the West U.S. to Texas. However, forecast confidence is near to below average for the Central U.S. dry outlook.