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Climate Impact Company Dynamic/AI Models Verification Report
Issued: Tuesday, March 24, 2026
Highlight: Check on 2-meter temperature forecast skill scores for NA, EU, SA, and AU past 30 days.
Fig. 1: Anomaly correlation skill score for 2-meter temperature forecasts during the past 30 days for North America, Europe, South America, and Australia.
Discussion: During the past 30 days, 2-meter temperature forecasts verification skill scores (using anomaly correlation) reveal best skill is across South America trailed by a tie between North America and Europe with Australia in last place (Fig. 1). Skill scores are marginally acceptable for South America and below acceptable error elsewhere. Best models are surprising and vary from continent to continent with CFS V2 the top model in North America, AI models 4CastNet V2 ECM ENS and GFS ENS in Europe, GFS ENS for South America, and ECM soring as top forecaster in Australia (Fig. 2-5). Dynamic models edged AI models in North America during the past 30 days while a slight edge goes to AI over dynamic models for Europe, South America, and Australia.
Fig. 2-3: Anomaly correlation skill score for 2-meter temperature forecasts during the past 30 days for North America and Europe.
Fig. 4-5: Anomaly correlation skill score for 2-meter temperature forecasts during the past 30 days for South America and Australia.