The cold burst into the U.S. next week remains in the forecast easing in the 11-15-day period. Interestingly, ECM maintains a colder edge to the mid-to-late December forecast based on heating degree day projections while the CFS V2 is much warmer. The HDD forecasts are heavily weighted by the high population East U.S.

After a warm autumn, a significant pattern change starting meteorological winter. A much colder forecast for the East trending colder during the 6-10/8-12-day period since late last week. Increased snow cover across Southern Canada into the Northern U.S. inspires the effectiveness of the cold air delivery. Significant heating demand, days when the average temperature is >10F colder than normal, is projected Nov. 29-Dec. 5 across both PJM and SERC sectors.

The Climate Impact Company Summer 2024-25 Climate Outlook for South America is updated. The outlook maintains strongest risk of anomalous heat and dryness across Argentina and Central/Northeast Brazil. The wet zone is confined to the south-central coastal region of Brazil.

Expected is a drier climate bias across South America due to emergence of Madden Julian oscillation in the tropical Indican Ocean/Maritime Continent over the next 2-3 weeks. The drier bias is underway during the past week centered on Paraguay, Northern Argentina, and Southeast Brazil. In South America, drought conditions continue across many sectors.

Red Flag Warnings issued due to high fire risk are relatively rare for the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England States. However, warnings for high fire risk have been common during late meteorological autumn across this region as historical drought has developed. The powerful atmospheric subsidence to produce the drought is related to the recent evolution of an upper air pattern caused by the North Atlantic Warm Hole.