-NAO pattern inspires a vigorous stormy and cold trough across Europe centered on the 6-10-day period. Snow cover has lagged over northwestern Eurasia. However, during the next 10 days snow cover widens into Europe. ECMWF warms Europe in early December; prefer the colder CFS V2 forecast as meteorological winter arrives.

Likely related to latent heat release of late season tropical cyclones in both the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific, a gathering of anomalous warm air aloft leading to a high-pressure block convenes over Greenland characteristic of a strong negative phase North Atlantic oscillation. In the middle latitudes, compensating cold trough patterns develop and replace the prevailing very warm climate of autumn 2024.

In Europe, an upper trough brings snow to Northern Europe to reverse the lack of early season snow in that region this weekend (Fig. 2). By Monday, a wintery feel with wind is emerging across U.K., North-central Europe, and Northeast Eurasia. A mid-next week rainstorm emerges over West-central Europe with trailing cold air that could cause some snow in U.K. and possibly as far south as Northern Spain.

The past 30 days are scorching hot across Australia, the hottest since 2015. However, "weeklies" forecasts from ECMWF generate rain-producing upper troughs the second half of November helping to dissipate the widespread hot regime.

The Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity has recovered to near normal for the season featuring 23 tropical storms, 13 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. A late season surge in activity features 4 systems now including Tropical Storm Yinxing heading for North Vietnam, Typhoon Toraji departing the Philippines, WP27 forecast to become a typhoon heading northwest possibly toward Taiwan, and Man-Yi forecast to become a major typhoon later this week.

The October-2024 Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) was -3.81, the strongest negative (cool) phase in the 1950-2024 record. Previously, the strongest monthly value was -3.55 observed in July 1955. The current record-strength -PDO is part of a 5-year cool phase beginning in January 2020. Additionally, the ongoing -PDO regime sustains the cool long-term cycle of PDO which began in the late 1990’s.