News
08/18/2022, 9:32 am EDT

Daily AG Market Round-up: Latest NOAA long-lead forecasts.

Highlight: Latest NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecasts. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC U.S. seasonal drought outlook. Discussion: NOAA/CPC issues new long-lead climate forecasts including a new seasonal drought monitor (Fig. 1). The seasonal drought outlook indicates several important changes. First, the drought across Texas and Oklahoma is forecast to continue but weaken considerably over the next 1-3 months. Drought is eliminated in parts of the Mid-south States. The drought across the west/central Great Plains continues and also affects southern Iowa and parts of Minnesota. Drought development is likely in the western Dakotas. The Southwest U.S. drought continues to ease while California/Great Basin drought stays torrid. The September 2022 outlook favors late season heat across the southwest sector of the U.S. with warm/humid weather in New England (Fig. 2). Dry climate is dominant in the North-central U.S. while the Southeast trends wet (Fig. 3). The meteorological autumn forecast favors anomalous warmth across most of the U.S. (Fig. 4) with dryness dominating the West-central U.S. eastward to the Appalachian Spine. Only Florida and Washington have a wet risk for the autumn season (Fig. 5). The winter outlook favors warmth across the South and East U.S. with equal chances of below, above or normal in the Central U.S. (Fig. 6). The precipitation outlook indicates classic La Nina climate with dryness across California and the remainder of the Southern U.S. (Fig. 7). Stormy risk is centered on the Ohio Valley. Fig. 2-3: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for September 2022. Fig. 4-5: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022. Fig. 6-7: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23.  
08/18/2022, 9:31 am EDT

U.S. Daily Energy Report: Latest NOAA long-lead forecasts.

Highlight: Latest NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecasts. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC U.S. seasonal drought outlook. Discussion: NOAA/CPC issues new long-lead climate forecasts including a new seasonal drought monitor (Fig. 1). The seasonal drought outlook indicates several important changes. First, the drought across Texas and Oklahoma is forecast to continue but weaken considerably over the next 1-3 months. Drought is eliminated in parts of the Mid-south States. The drought across the west/central Great Plains continues and also affects southern Iowa and parts of Minnesota. Drought development is likely in the western Dakotas. The Southwest U.S. drought continues to ease while California/Great Basin drought stays torrid. The September 2022 outlook favors late season heat across the southwest sector of the U.S. with warm/humid weather in New England (Fig. 2). Dry climate is dominant in the North-central U.S. while the Southeast trends wet (Fig. 3). The meteorological autumn forecast favors anomalous warmth across most of the U.S. (Fig. 4) with dryness dominating the West-central U.S. eastward to the Appalachian Spine. Only Florida and Washington have a wet risk for the autumn season (Fig. 5). The winter outlook favors warmth across the South and East U.S. with equal chances of below, above or normal in the Central U.S. (Fig. 6). The precipitation outlook indicates classic La Nina climate with dryness across California and the remainder of the Southern U.S. (Fig. 7). Stormy risk is centered on the Ohio Valley. Fig. 2-3: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for September 2022. Fig. 4-5: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022. Fig. 6-7: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23.  
08/18/2022, 8:53 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Tropical Monitor

Highlight: No significant events indicated in the 10-day forecast. Fig. 1: Morning satellite view of the North Atlantic basin. Discussion: A tropical low-pressure area has drifted inland into the southern Yucatan Peninsula (Fig. 1). This system will drift west to northwest likely not developing due to disorganization in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The upper shear axis across the Caribbean Sea extends northeastward into the central subtropical North Atlantic and is a little stronger than yesterday. An easterly upper shear axis is preventing tropical waves from organizing off the West Africa Coast. In today’s 10-day outlooks both the GFS and ECM are shy about tropical cyclone development.
08/18/2022, 8:17 am EDT

U.S. Energy Market Early Notes: Heat roars ahead in the West while flooding persists in the Southwest.

Fig. 1-2: ECM hottest day ahead forecast for the Northwest and California. U.S. discussion: Short-term high impact weather is in the West. The excessive heat continues across the Northwest States to California through the weekend. The peak hot day in the Northwest is today. ECM projects high temperatures in the 100-105F range for southwest Idaho to southeast Washington today (Fig. 1). The heat eases slightly the next 2 days and more forcefully into early next week. In California, the hot weather continues through the weekend with the hottest day projected by ECM for Saturday with 110-112F well inland and 90’s not too far from the coast (Fig. 2). In the Southwest U.S., the immense wet monsoon of summer 2022 roars on. The short-term heavy rains are enhanced by entrainment of a tropical low-pressure area that moved across southern Texas earlier this week. Widespread flood risk is apparent for Arizona and New Mexico in the 5-day forecast (Fig. 3). Some of the heavy rain extends to the southern Great Plains. The wet weather pattern continues but with lower intensity later next week (Fig. 4). Fig. 3-4: ECM rainfall forecast for the Southwest U.S. the next 5 days and next week. The latest U.S. population weight CDD forecast reveals the current cool week reverses to warmer than normal to close the last third of August (Fig. 5). Fig. 5: The U.S. population weight CDD forecasts by all models, their consensus and comparison with 48 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.