News
08/02/2022, 7:59 am EDT
08/02/2022, 7:59 am EDT

Widespread Excessive Rainfall/Flood Risk Next 3 Days

While drought discussion has been a significant issue during mid-summer, excessive rain zones are expanding as early August arrives. The East Kentucky/Central Appalachia historic flood is expanding. Excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is forecast across all of Kentucky today with greatest risk in southeast Illinois.
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08/02/2022, 5:42 am EDT
08/02/2022, 5:42 am EDT

Why Have Week-2 U.S. CDD Forecasts Been Too Hot?

Week-2 ahead U.S. population weight CDD forecasts have routinely been too hot for most of meteorological summer so far. Speculated is forecast models are hot-biased due to stronger than existing dry soil moisture conditions which produce short-term errors that grow with time. NOAA soil moisture analysis varies from dramatically dry to realistic dry.
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08/01/2022, 12:50 pm EDT
08/01/2022, 12:50 pm EDT

Forecast Models Struggling with Central/East Hot/Dry Weather Forecasts.

Not convenient is the developing hot/dry bias by the GFS (and all models are showing this problem) during the past 2+ weeks for the Central/Midwest U.S. Maximum temperatures are hot at times but nowhere near 2-meter forecasts offered primarily by the GFS.
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