August 2022 - Page 2 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

08/21/2022, 5:30 pm EDT

Low Mid-troposphere Relative Humidity Suppressing North Atlantic Tropics

Unless the subsidence pattern stretched across the deep tropics of the North Atlantic basin reverses soon, the seasonal activity levels will likely be somewhat lower than outlooks issued late last spring and mid-summer. Due to seasonality, conditions should improve, and SEP/OCT looks like the busiest time of the 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season (vs. AUG/SEP of most years). However, due to the late start of the season, the seasonal totals are likely less than the buoyant numbers associated with seasonal outlooks previously issued.

08/20/2022, 8:40 am EDT

TD 4 Likely to Strengthen to TS Danielle Later Today

Dry air entrainment is holding back TD 4 right now. However, this system should reach minimal tropical storm intensity prior to striking the far northeast coast of Mexico this evening. Models are under-playing the attendant rainfall potential. The remains of inland shifting Danielle will further enhance a heavy rain event across Texas lasting for several days.

08/19/2022, 10:40 am EDT

Subsidence/Low Relative Humidity Squash North Atlantic Tropics July to Mid-August

The North Atlantic basin is quiet through mid-August (since July 1st) due to the subsidence pattern in the deep tropics and subtropics in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The subsidence is well-represented by the low relative humidity in the middle atmosphere (600 MB) in these regions.

08/18/2022, 8:13 am EDT

Status of China and Europe Drought

Crop damage and electricity cutbacks are accelerating due to the China drought and continued hot and dry weather pattern.

08/18/2022, 5:25 am EDT

Ag Resource Crop Tour So Far – Critical Weather Ahead!

The AG Resource Midwest U.S. Crop Tour marches on westward after finding better conditions to the east and worsening conditions to the west (although not as bad as expected). The findings are well-supported by soil moisture analysis. The pattern ahead for the U.S. Corn Belt to finish summer is tricky offering both extended periods of dryness interrupted by renegade rains.

08/17/2022, 8:54 am EDT

Blocking high-pressure Over Ontario/Quebec Ahead of North Atlantic TC Activity Has Serious Implications

In late August, GFS indicates a titanic upper-level high-pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes region to Quebec. The upper-level ridge is well-correlated to very warm SSTA in the northwest North Atlantic basin. The GFS indicates the tropical cyclone season finally gets underway the last week of August.

08/16/2022, 9:21 am EDT

Update On SSTA Regions In The North Atlantic Basin

The North Atlantic regional SSTA vary widely. Off the U.S. East Coast waters have warmed to +0.66C, a change of +0.40C during the past 30 days. In the main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes located in-between the Caribbean Sea and northwest coast of Africa the SSTA is marginally warm (+0.30C) and while warmer than 2-4 weeks ago, the past week has shown slight cooling. In the Gulf of Mexico, the basin is near normal and has cooled 0.24C during the past 30 days.

08/11/2022, 8:06 am EDT

Lack of Widespread Warmth of the North Atlantic Basin May Limit 2022 Hurricanes

During the mid-to-late 1990’s to 2022, the North Atlantic basin entered a decadal warm cycle. Most of that time the North Atlantic basin has produced warmer-than-normal SST accounting for an uptick in tropical cyclone activity. The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is a SSTA index covering the entire North Atlantic basin.

08/11/2022, 7:58 am EDT

Rare New England Drought Likely to End

The U.S. Drought Monitor identifies rare severe drought across east and southeast New England. The drought has strengthened during mid-summer due to limited rainfall and periods of extreme heat. However, seasonal forecasts for late summer/autumn 2022 are wetter than normal.

08/10/2022, 9:43 am EDT

Dramatic Regional SSTA Having Impact on Global Climate

Many regions of warm/cool SSTA are adversely affecting global climate in July 2022 and now into August including the northeast Pacific Marine Heat Wave and super-warm waters off the Asia East Coast plus surrounding Europe. Meanwhile the tropical North Atlantic has not warmed as expected (yet).

08/09/2022, 10:19 am EDT

Tropical Upper Troposphere Trough Continues to Protect Western North Atlantic Basin from Tropical Activity

Inhibiting tropical cyclone development across the western half of the North Atlantic basin in July and into August is evolution of a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). In the upper troposphere, on average, wind direction is out of the north across the Gulf of Mexico and becomes westerly in the Caribbean Sea and then northerly over Puerto Rico on the back side of an upper-level ridge pattern in the southeast North Atlantic.

08/08/2022, 4:50 pm EDT

New Tropical Disturbance in the Outer Atlantic

Tropical Disturbance 97L has formed in the outer tropical North Atlantic basin. 97L has gained clarity today and may be a little farther west than indicated by NOAA/NHC. The preliminary 5-day forecast by Climate Impact Company (CIC) indicates west to west-northwest travel almost to the far northeast Caribbean Sea and likelihood of intensification to a tropical storm.