Unless the subsidence pattern stretched across the deep tropics of the North Atlantic basin reverses soon, the seasonal activity levels will likely be somewhat lower than outlooks issued late last spring and mid-summer. Due to seasonality, conditions should improve, and SEP/OCT looks like the busiest time of the 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season (vs. AUG/SEP of most years). However, due to the late start of the season, the seasonal totals are likely less than the buoyant numbers associated with seasonal outlooks previously issued.

Dry air entrainment is holding back TD 4 right now. However, this system should reach minimal tropical storm intensity prior to striking the far northeast coast of Mexico this evening. Models are under-playing the attendant rainfall potential. The remains of inland shifting Danielle will further enhance a heavy rain event across Texas lasting for several days.