Fig. 1-3: Daily soil moisture anomalies identify the China drought which worsens based on the ECM ENS 15-day temperature/precipitation anomalies.
Discussion: Crop damage and electricity cutbacks are accelerating due to the China drought (Fig. 1) and continued hot and dry weather pattern (Fig. 2-3). Summer 2022 has featured limited rain across China causing rapid onset of drought which is accelerated by the mid-to-late summer hot weather pattern. The hot/dry climate was foreshadowed by extremely warm SSTA off the East Asia coastline.
Recent rainfall has eased (slightly) the Western Europe drought. However, soil moisture conditions remain arid (Fig. 4). The outlook maintains anomalous warmth through the next 2 weeks, most notable in Western Russia (Fig. 5). The wet weather pattern shifts to Southeast Europe to close August (Fig. 6). At the moment, the new showery pattern affecting Europe is not benefitting Rhine River level forecasts (Fig. 7).
Fig. 4-6: Daily soil moisture anomalies identify the Europe drought plus the 15-day ECM ENS temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast.
Fig. 7: Rhine River levels remain in descent for late August.