March 2020 - Climate Impact Company

03/30/2020, 8:16 am EDT

Strongest Arctic Oscillation on Record

Rare are 3 consecutive months of the same intense polar vortex location during the winter season. However, the lack of displacement of the polar vortex from the North Pole during winter 2019-20 was a leading catalyst to the increased mild maritime influence across most of the continental northern hemisphere causing a record warm winter.

03/27/2020, 5:08 am EDT

The Potent Influence and Implications of Warm SSTA on Climate

The influence on climate of large areas of warmer-than-normal ocean surface temperatures is an increasing trend. A current example is the historical warm anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico caused by an early 2020 strong subtropical ridge which has lead to coastal Gulf drought while inland excessive rain and flooding has occurred. The warm ocean surface and associated sea level rise raise an eyebrow as to potential damage caused by what is expected to be an active tropical cyclone season for summer into early autumn ahead.

03/25/2020, 2:53 pm EDT

Late Season Cold Snap into Europe

According to the Canadian Ensemble temperature departures from normal are in the -6F to -12F range for much of Europe in the 6-10 day period. Crop areas will receive morning low temperatures in the 20's. The pattern is inspired by the first negative phase North Atlantic oscillation since last November.

03/19/2020, 3:40 pm EDT

Does ENSO phase follow the cool shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation?

The Pacific decadal oscillation flipped to the cool phase in early 2020. There is a tendency for PDO and ENSO to run parallel. Will ENSO flip to La Nina later in 2020?

03/17/2020, 9:18 am EDT

Intense “Kona Storm” Strikes Hawaii

An intensifying Kona Storm has emerged west of Hawaii and will cause widespread flash flooding especially Kauai and Oahu today.

03/12/2020, 11:16 am EDT

Madden Julian Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation Shift Ahead

After nearly 3 months of an active MJO near and west of the Dateline in the tropics a change is ahead...the MJO will shift east toward the tropical Atlantic and Africa in 7+ days. Coincidentally, the positive arctic oscillation collapses. A colder northern hemisphere climate evolves in 10+ days including North America AND Eurasia.

03/10/2020, 7:36 am EDT

Storminess Ahead for Great Plains; flood risk increases substantially.

At risk of several to 10+ in. of rain is anywhere from northeast Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) based on a consensus of the 15-day rainfall forecast by GFS, ECM and CMC. The severe weather threat zone will be Texas and the Missouri Valley.

03/06/2020, 5:23 am EST

An Update on Global Soil Moisture Anomalies

The most remarkable soil moisture regimes are the persistent and historic wet soil moisture regimes across eastern tropical Africa and India. The wet soils in this area are the result of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole which peaked in intensity last October. Warm SSTA across the tropical Indian Ocean may try to sustain this wet pattern despite the collapse of the +IOD.

03/04/2020, 10:38 am EST

Why -PMM May Inspire La Nina.

During well-established La Nina events (such as 2007-09 and 2010-12) the PMM is steadily negative. Forecast models are indicating La Nina risk for later in 2020.

03/04/2020, 10:33 am EST

Epic +AO Could Inspire Strong Severe Weather.

The January/February 2020 arctic oscillation (AO) averaged +2.9 (second strongest on record) with the February AO index (+3.417) the strongest on record (for February). Identified by the vigorous +AO regime is an intense polar vortex anchored near the North Pole and strengthening the thermal ribbon in the upper atmosphere between very cold upper air in the polar region and warmer regime in the subtropics.

03/01/2020, 3:15 pm EST

Climate & COVID-19

A possible contibutor to the spread of COVID-19 in China is a wetter than normal winter climate pattern. A National Institute of Health (NIH) study in 2013 found that flu spreads more easily in cold and dry OR cool and wet climate patterns during winter. China has observed a milder than normal winter with wet conditions.

03/01/2020, 10:38 am EST

Re-Emerging MJO Enhances South America Dryness/Wet Weather in Australia

Internationally, the emerging MJO stretched across Indonesia and backing into the eastern tropical Indian Ocean teh next 2 weeks supports dryness in South America and a wet climate in Australia backing into Southeast Asia with time. Southeast Asia is very dry and needs the rain. Argentina heat becomes impressive with the projected dryness.