During well-established La Nina events (such as 2007-09 and 2010-12) the PMM is steadily negative. Forecast models are indicating La Nina risk for later in 2020.

The January/February 2020 arctic oscillation (AO) averaged +2.9 (second strongest on record) with the February AO index (+3.417) the strongest on record (for February). Identified by the vigorous +AO regime is an intense polar vortex anchored near the North Pole and strengthening the thermal ribbon in the upper atmosphere between very cold upper air in the polar region and warmer regime in the subtropics.

Internationally, the emerging MJO stretched across Indonesia and backing into the eastern tropical Indian Ocean teh next 2 weeks supports dryness in South America and a wet climate in Australia backing into Southeast Asia with time. Southeast Asia is very dry and needs the rain. Argentina heat becomes impressive with the projected dryness.