Late Season Cold Snap into Europe

Does ENSO phase follow the cool shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation?
03/19/2020, 3:40 pm EDT
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Late Season Chill for Europe Days 6-10

Fig. 1: The GFS ENS risk of <28F forecast for days 6-10.

Discussion: A negative North Atlantic oscillation is forecast to develop next week with sharp intensity. The –NAO pattern projected is the first since last November. In Europe a cold outbreak is likely next week with widespread risk of minimum temperatures <28F early to middle of next week (Fig. 1). The cold weather is the result of a deep upper trough inspired by the –NAO pattern as forecast by the Canadian Ensemble (Fig. 2). The upper trough causes widespread areas of 6F to 12F below normal in Europe during the 6-10 day period (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2: The CMC ENS upper air forecast for days 6-10 identifies a sharp upper trough over Spain/France inspired by negative North Atlantic oscillation.

Fig. 3: The upper trough forecast by CMC ENS in the 6-10 day period causes widespread temperature anomalies of -6F to -12F.