Siding with the AI 4Cast Net V2 forecast direction heading into mid-May. Why? Cooling of the western North Atlantic as previously stated last week. NCEP CFS V2 is the operational model capturing this philosophy. The model is substantially cooler than ECM. A marked cool change is indicated for the Midwest U.S. with a southern shift from Canada to the Mid-south States of the wet weather belt. A major change!

A super warm global ocean surface is in the news! However, not all oceanic zones are warm. Norte the 1-year change in the western North Atlantic. The western North Atlantic has cooled to near normal during mid-spring. The cooling waters foreshadow presence of an upper trough on the East Coast for much of May.