04/29/2024, 5:08 am EDT

ECM ENS (Dynamic Model) Vs. AI 4CastNet V2 (AI Model) for U.S. in 10+ Days

Siding with the AI 4Cast Net V2 forecast direction heading into mid-May. Why? Cooling of the western North Atlantic as previously stated last week. NCEP CFS V2 is the operational model capturing this philosophy. The model is substantially cooler than ECM. A marked cool change is indicated for the Midwest U.S. with a southern shift from Canada to the Mid-south States of the wet weather belt. A major change!
04/28/2024, 11:59 am EDT

New Transitional U.S. Thermal Pattern Lowers Forecast Skill

Dynamic meteorological models generally have increased error during the cold-to-warm transition season. The 30-day skill scores of leading models are generally consistent with long-term averages for this time of year. However, the short-term (7-day) forecast skill has recently lowered.
04/26/2024, 4:35 am EDT

Cooling Western North Atlantic Foreshadows Cooler East U.S. Coast Weather in May

A super warm global ocean surface is in the news! However, not all oceanic zones are warm. Norte the 1-year change in the western North Atlantic. The western North Atlantic has cooled to near normal during mid-spring. The cooling waters foreshadow presence of an upper trough on the East Coast for much of May.