The Climate Impact Company summer 2024 outlook valid for May through September is issued. The forecast is based on a transition from an El Nino to La Nina climate, warming of already very warm mid-latitude oceans, optimum climate normal, and anticipated drought zones.

Today’s 15-day precipitation forecast is produced using the new AIFS (artificial intelligence forecast system) generated by ECMWF. This is the first precipitation forecast generated by artificial intelligence made available on an experimental basis every 6 hours and available through CWG/Storm Vista.

Q1 of 2024 was warmer than normal in each of the 48 contiguous states including MUCH ABOVE normal for the Upper Midwest to Mid-Atlantic to New England States. Six states finished the 3-month period with their 2nd warmest Q1 on record, including Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Nationally, Q1 was 5th warmest on record.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) announced that the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is forecast to return to the positive phase in May lasting several months into early Q4/2024. ABOM identifies +IOD years (since 1950) as 1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2019, and 2023. In each of these analog years (except for 1961 and 1967) El Nino was present. Of the 10 analog years, 5 featured strong El Nino.

An interesting conflict has emerged regarding phase of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) for mid-2024. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicates a shift of the neutral IOD pattern back into positive phase by MAY/JUN. The positive phase remains in-place through the winter season. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast maintains neutral phase.

During March 2024, the sunspot number (SSN) was 104.9. The monthly value is surprisingly decreasing. The peak monthly SSN value as solar cycle 25 began maxima last year was 160 in July 2023. Because of the over-achieving sunspot number early in solar maxima 25, some forecasts were adjusted to produce record-strength maxima forecasts during solar cycle peak in 2025. However, the NASA forecast, which mirrored the solar cycle 24 signature appears to be on track with the sudden sharp decrease in SSN during March.

The cloud cover forecast using the most recent GFS forecast for the April 8 solar eclipse is updated. Texas and western New York have the poorest viewing. Best viewing continues across northern New England. The Ohio Valley viewing forecast is improving.