An interesting conflict has emerged regarding phase of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) for mid-2024. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicates a shift of the neutral IOD pattern back into positive phase by MAY/JUN. The positive phase remains in-place through the winter season. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast maintains neutral phase.

During March 2024, the sunspot number (SSN) was 104.9. The monthly value is surprisingly decreasing. The peak monthly SSN value as solar cycle 25 began maxima last year was 160 in July 2023. Because of the over-achieving sunspot number early in solar maxima 25, some forecasts were adjusted to produce record-strength maxima forecasts during solar cycle peak in 2025. However, the NASA forecast, which mirrored the solar cycle 24 signature appears to be on track with the sudden sharp decrease in SSN during March.