ECM ENS (Dynamic Model) Vs. AI 4CastNet V2 (AI Model) for U.S. in 10+ Days

Charts of the day: ECM and AI differing upper air forecasts.

Discussion: A lot of NEW AI models have been released to the energy and agriculture sector in recent months. Recently, CIC Climate Researcher Dr. Olivia Kellner reviewed the difference between dynamic and artificial intelligence forecast models, they could not be more different. Next on the AI front, Climate Impact Company will perform some case studies comparing forecasts with a video release later this year. The first case study will be an 11-15-day forecast. Overnight, the heavily relied upon ECM ENS projects a mild zonal flow across the U.S. in 11-15 days which is in opposition to a cooler pattern change indicated at this time late last week. The AI 4Cast Net V2 from ECMWF projects a deep trough in the East which follows (more strongly) forecast reasoning from late last week that a cooler western North Atlantic foreshadowed cooler weather ahead for the U.S. Climate signals support the ECM ENS forecast; machine learning is MUCH cooler. An interesting challenge and test!

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 5-11, 2024: A major cooler pattern adjustment.

Discussion: Siding with the AI 4Cast Net V2 forecast direction heading into mid-May. Why? Cooling of the western North Atlantic as previously stated last week. NCEP CFS V2 is the operational model capturing this philosophy. The model is substantially cooler than ECM. A marked cool change is indicated for the Midwest U.S. with a southern shift from Canada to the Mid-south States of the wet weather belt. A major change!

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid May 12-18, 2024: Cooler direction continues.

Discussion: Staying consistent, NCEP CFS V2 cuts off an upper trough in the Central U.S. causing a marked cooler change for the Central U.S. featuring wet weather risk in the recently emerging drought zone of the west/southwest Great Plains.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid May 19-25, 2024: Warmer West; temperate elsewhere.

Discussion: NCEP CFS V2 persistence lingers for late May although the West U.S. turns much warmer. Mid-south to Mid-Atlantic rains is projected.