08/12/2026, 5:25 am EDT
Dramatic cooling of SSTA surrounding Northern Europe foreshadows an upper trough bringing a late August pattern change for Europe as an upper trough emerges next week and lasts into late month.
08/11/2026, 9:01 am EDT
The U.S. observed the hottest July on record. Wyoming observed their hottest July on record while 20 states finished in the MUCH ABOVE normal category. 14 of 20 states observed top 5 hottest all-time while 4 states were top 3 all-time hottest.
08/11/2026, 5:42 am EDT
Historically, major hurricanes observed during AUG/SEP/OCT of strong El Nino years are minimal. Only 1 of 5 analog years produced 2 major hurricanes (2015) possibly related to a warmer North Atlantic basin. In 2026, the North Atlantic basin is projected twice as warm as 2015. Notable storms were Joaquin (2015) and Betsy (1965) for having southwesterly tracks into warmer ocean water to cause significant strengthening as westerly El Nino shear failed to turn these storms northward.
08/10/2026, 4:28 am EDT
Along the southern periphery of the active Midwest U.S. weather pattern, building anomalous heat will last through much of the next 2 weeks. The risk of 100F reaches Southern Nebraska and Kansas to the Southern Missouri Valley (and southward) consistently during the hot period. The Mid-south, Southern Plains, and much of Texas receives no rain and Southern Plains drought is expansive.
08/10/2026, 4:23 am EDT
The Northwest U.S. Air Quality Alerts are ongoing. A strong eastward plume of smoke and dust is forecast for midweek, possibly extending across the entire Northern U.S. In 5 days, CAMS (model) indicates the high intensity smoke/dust shifts farther south in Washington State.
08/07/2026, 1:48 pm EDT
Cool relief for the Northeast U.S. according to the 12Z GFS while Mid-south heat is intense days 6-10 and widens days 11-15 from the Great Plains to the Southeast U.S. The 12Z GFS maintains an arc of heavy rain and severe weather from the Midwest U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic States.
08/07/2026, 7:01 am EDT
Strong positive phase of the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia index supports an evolving trough in the East U.S. and lingering ridge in Europe.
08/06/2026, 8:50 am EDT
How long does El Nino 2026-27 last? Based on an analog using both monthly relative operational Nino index (RONI) and multivariate ENSO index (MEI), El Nino ends abruptly during the middle of 2027 and could reverse to La Nina later next year.
08/05/2026, 4:57 am EDT
Paris/Orly observed a record 208 CDD during July 2026 eclipsing the previous high mark of 192 (2006). June also produced a record CDD and August 2026 is projected in the top five hottest although a hotter value is certainly possible.
08/04/2026, 5:56 am EDT
The July 2026 rainfall anomalies identify dramatically drier than normal climate across the East and West Coast of Australia. Each dry zone is part of evolving drought.
08/04/2026, 4:44 am EDT
ECM ENS identifies the wet arc of moisture through the Southwest U.S. to the Colorado Rockies and into the Midwest U.S. in the latest 15-day forecast. Interestingly, AIFS ENS is farther to the west with the arc featuring remnants of a tropical cyclone striking California early in the 11-15-day period. The strong Southwest U.S. Monsoon is inspired by an intense marine heatwave off the coast of Southwest North America.
08/04/2026, 4:39 am EDT
The super drought covering much of Europe continues to expand during early August. During the past week, very little rainfall was observed across the southern 2/3 of Europe including the immediate Black Sea region.