August 2026 - Climate Impact Company

08/31/2026, 8:41 am EDT

Tropical Disturbance EP95 in East Pacific Travels Northward Extended-range; Brings Rain to California

Tropical Disturbance EP95 drifts northward across the record-strength marine heatwave off the Southwest Coast of North America enabling the system to carry attendant tropical moisture farther north than usual potentially leading to over-achieving flooding rainfall in Southern California.

08/31/2026, 5:08 am EDT

Derecho-style Severe Storms Possible Eastern Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic TUE/WED

“Ring of fire” severe thunderstorms, possibly derecho-style fold through the eastern Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States tomorrow and Wednesday. The clash of hot weather with the jet stream not far to the north is the recipe for fast-moving big wind-producing severe storms.

08/30/2026, 1:16 pm EDT

Regenerating Heat/Dryness across Southern Half of Europe Ahead

Southern Europe heat rebuilds during late calendar summer. ECM ENS indicates vigorous warm temperature anomalies during the next 15 days which include widespread 95F/35C risk for Southwest and Southeast Europe.

08/30/2026, 12:19 pm EDT

Widening Brazil Rains Ahead

Once again, marine heatwaves (MHW) project their influence, and sometimes interference (with ENSO), on the prevailing climate this time in South America. Utilizing AI Weather Next V2, the 15-day outlook maintains a trend which developed last week, wetter Brazil outlooks.

08/28/2026, 10:56 am EDT

Soil Moisture Conditions/15-Day Outlooks Most Crop Areas

Extremes characterize U.S. soil moisture in August. Flash drought has developed across Oklahoma and vicinity. Drought is also intensifying across the Upper Midwest. The Midwest has shifted dramatically much wetter during late summer.

08/28/2026, 9:22 am EDT

Inactive Tropics Allowing Ocean Surface to Warm

The subtropical North Atlantic basin is warming significantly as September 1st approaches partly due to lack of tropical cyclones tracking through these waters to up-well cooler water. The Gulf of America is near 1.0C warmer than normal while the western North Atlantic basin is 1.25C warmer than normal. Actual surface temperatures are in the 86-87F/30-31C range sufficient for explosive intensification for any tropical cyclones passing over the very warm waters.

08/27/2026, 10:13 am EDT

Initial CIC U.S. Winter 2026-27 Outlook

The Climate Impact Company INITIAL Winter 2026-27 Outlook is issued. The forecast is based on a constructed analog heavily weighting past strong El Nino events. El Nino 2026-27 has a 70% chance of breaking the record for strongest warm ENSO event on record.

08/26/2026, 5:41 am EDT

CIC U.S. Month 1-4 Ahead Climate Forecast

The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 ahead outlook is updated. The forecast process is based on persistence (of the current pattern) into October shifting rapidly into an El Nino climate for November/December. Forecast highlights include ongoing very warm risk for the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. during September, an evolving Southern U.S. storm track in October, widening storm track with sneaky cold in November, and possible record warmth in the East during December. El Nino intensification is ongoing and risk of the strongest El Nino on record is near 70% (NOAA) by late autumn/early winter.

08/24/2026, 11:53 am EDT

ALERT for Eastern North Atlantic Tropics Tropical Cyclone Later This Week

Two systems are monitored in the North Atlantic tropics this morning. A tropical disturbance east of Bermuda is drifting north with a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, according to NOAA/NHC, this week.

08/24/2026, 11:48 am EDT

Accelerating El Nino Intensity Slows Down

Climate Impact Company refers to El Nino intensity as “strong” to “super” intensity due to relative Nino34 SSTA stuck at +1.8C and conventional Nino34 SSTA just above the +2.5C super El Nino threshold. However, without question, due to immense subsurface heating in the equatorial East Pacific, potential for the strongest El Nino on record later this year remains indicated.

08/23/2026, 7:17 pm EDT

ECM Indicates Beneficial Wet Weather First Half of September

Recently, wet weather has developed across parts, not all, of the Europe drought region. The week 2-4 outlook indicates additional rainfall is likely to help ease drought in parts of Europe.

08/23/2026, 6:43 am EDT

Marine Heatwave NEP25A Shaping The U.S. Upper Air Pattern

A lot of talk about Super El Nino, but the late summer 2026 upper air pattern is shaped mostly by the influence of strong marine heatwaves (MHW) in the East Pacific and the cooler SSTA zone in-between. Most prominent is Super MHW25A, forming late last year and persisting at record warm levels to date, this warm ocean feature is well-correlated to amplified high pressure centered on the Southwest U.S. and causing this sector of the nation to experience their warmest year on record.