04/28/2022, 3:38 pm EDT

Soaking Wet and Cool Great Plains/Midwest U.S. Ahead

Climate forecasts for the warm season indicate expanding drought in the Great Plains. However, short-term forecasts are trending much cooler and wetter especially the next 10 days. ECMWF indicates widespread several to as much as 5-6 in. of rain. Climate signals are not particularly supportive of this event BUT forecast models are definitely trending in the cooler/wetter direction.
04/28/2022, 9:11 am EDT

NOAA U.S. Drought Monitor Updated

The NOAA U.S. Weekly Drought Monitor is updated and based on historical dry soil moisture conditions across the Southwest and West-central U.S. plus sneaky historical wet soils in the Upper Midwest and parts of the Interior Northeast.
04/25/2022, 7:28 am EDT

Wet AUG/SEP 2022 Forecast for Tropical Africa Spells Trouble in the Main Development Region for Hurricanes!

An excellent predictor of level of intensity that tropical waves moving off the Northwest Africa Coast during the peak (AUG/SEP) of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is the rainfall forecast for tropical Africa. Based on an analog focused on presence of La Nina and negative Indian Ocean Dipole the global tropical environment favors a wetter than normal tropical Africa regime during AUG/SEP 2022.