Wet AUG/SEP 2022 Forecast for Tropical Africa Spells Trouble in the Main Development Region for Hurricanes!

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Fig. 1: The AUG/SEP 2022 rain anomaly forecast for tropical Africa is wet! Implied is stronger tropical waves more capable of intensification into the Atlantic.

Discussion: An excellent predictor of level of intensity that tropical waves moving off the Northwest Africa Coast during the peak (AUG/SEP) of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is the rainfall forecast for tropical Africa. Based on an analog focused on presence of La Nina and negative Indian Ocean Dipole the global tropical environment favors a wetter than normal tropical Africa regime during AUG/SEP 2022. Other dynamic model forecasts, such as IRI/LDEO are in agreement. Implied is presence of stronger than normal tropical waves into the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin in-between the Caribbean Sea and Cape Verde Islands. Currently, a strong negative phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (-QBO) is developing. The -QBO is likely to extend to the tropical cyclone season fading late in 2022. During -QBO upper-level ventilation required for tropical cyclones to develop and intensify is suppressed in the deep tropics but enhanced in the subtropics (the 2005 TC season is a good example). Implied is strong tropical waves enter the North Atlantic tropics but wait for migration out of the deep tropics before development (which puts these events closer to a land mass for potential intensification).