NOAA Seasonal Drought Forecast Indicates Expansion into Iowa

U.S. Month 1-3 Ahead Outlook: Drought Expansion; West/Central to Northeast heat!
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Fig. 1: Latest NOAA/CPC seasonal drought outlook.

Discussion: NOAA/CPC seasonal drought forecast maintains the long-term drought condition present across the western half of the U.S. (Fig. 1). Exceptions are in Arizona where the summertime wet monsoon features gully-washer rains that end drought. However, the Great Plains drought is forecast to expand westward into Iowa. In the East, drought risk is not present. The NOAA/CPC outlook for May is revised cooler for the Midwest while anomalous heat risk is highest across West Texas (Fig. 2). Late spring is very wet across the East U.S. (Fig. 3). The NOAA/CPC meteorological summer outlook indicates widespread anomalous warmth with greatest likelihood of anomalous heat in Utah/Colorado and New England (Fig. 4). The summertime precipitation outlook features heavy rain risk in the northern Mid-Atlantic States while the Great Plains are very dry (Fig. 5). The previously issued constructed analog forecast by Climate Impact Company is similar with widespread warmth (Fig. 6) and Great plains dryness (Fig. 7). CPC/NOAA indicates greatest risk of land-falling tropical cyclones during AUG/SEP/OCT 2022 is Virginia/Maryland and Louisiana (Fig. 8).

Fig. 2-3: NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for May.

Fig. 4-5: NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2022.

Fig. 6-7: Latest Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2022.

Fig. 8: NOAA/CPC precipitation probability forecast for AUG/SEP/OCT 2022.