04/30/2023, 11:21 am EDT

El Nino, Marine Heat Waves, and July 2023 Northern Hemisphere Climate Risks

Evolving El Nino coupled with marine heat waves suggest the warmest global ocean temperatures on record are ahead for 2023. As of March, global SSTA were the 3rd warmest in 174 years. Certainly, the super warm global SSTA will influence climate patterns. Of leading interest is where drought areas emerge during the northern hemisphere summer. Right now, concern areas are tropical SSTA-driven drought in Western Indonesia and possibly India while MHW-driven drought returns to Europe and the U.S.
04/25/2023, 8:52 am EDT

U.S. Rainfall Needed to Neutralize Palmer Drought Severity Index

During the past week, rainfall required to end dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) increased in western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southwest Texas while the remainder of the Great Plains drought area remain unchanged although shifting wetter in the Houston Area on the Texas Coast. The Mid-Atlantic drought worsened. Rainfall needed to end drought in northern Virginia/Washington D.C. is now in the 12-15 in. range.
04/24/2023, 2:46 pm EDT

Subsurface Equatorial Pacific is Key to ENSO Forecast

Almost the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal in the subsurface (upper ocean heat) except to the immediate east of the Dateline. The warming during the past 2-3 weeks is dramatic with a big assist from the Madden Julian oscillation and an eastward surging Kelvin Wave. Despite the eastern equatorial Pacific subsurface warming, the bulk of the upper ocean heat remains west of the Dateline as ENSO 2023 is looking more complicated.