04/07/2023, 9:46 am EDT
For now, prohibitive El Nino warming off the northwest coast of South America is blocked from westward progression by incoming col waters from the north.
04/07/2023, 9:16 am EDT
At issue is the Great Plains/Texas drought as mid-meteorological spring approaches. All western and southern Kansas plus the Oklahoma Panhandle are in D4 (“exceptional drought”) classification. To best understand the 15-day outlook, the mega-cluster ensemble is considered to determine rainfall risk in the drought areas.
04/04/2023, 10:14 am EDT
Severe thunderstorms affect the East-central U.S. today. Tornadoes are expected in Iowa/Illinois to Missouri to Arkansas today. On Wednesday, the severe weather risk expands to include the Ohio Valley to Arkansas and Louisiana and includes additional tornado risk centered on the Ohio/Western Tennessee Valley.
04/04/2023, 10:12 am EDT
In March, the subsurface equatorial Pacific warmed dramatically. Each NINO region of the equatorial Pacific subsurface is now in support of an El Nino development trend. The change from February is dramatic…much warmer! Normally, the observational trend of subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific can foreshadow a possible phase change of ENSO.
04/03/2023, 5:09 am EDT
Winter Storm Warnings are issued for the eastern Dakota’s and northern half of Minnesota. A Blizzard Warning is issued for western South Dakota. The GFS indicates a 6-18-inch snowstorm ahead featuring high wind which will push 2-3-foot drifts of snow. Blizzard conditions are likely to extend northeastward.
04/02/2023, 12:20 pm EDT
The SSTA pattern in the Northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico identifies in-part why the weekend severe weather outbreak was so intense (2-day total of 1, 264 severe weather reports). The West U.S. trough well-correlated to persistent cool SSTA off the U.S. West Coast entrained more abundant moisture than normal from the much warmer than usual Gulf of Mexico.
04/01/2023, 9:24 am EDT
After a whopping 738 severe weather reports in the Midwest States yesterday with Illinois hardest hit, a large severe weather and windstorm shifts into the East U.S. today. Two bands of severe weather squalls cross the Mid-Atlantic, one this morning and another by early evening. Wind gusts >70 mph affect the central Appalachian States with gusts to 60 mph at the shoreline today into this evening. More high wind for New England tomorrow.