06/30/2022, 4:21 pm EDT

Emerging Heat in the Medium-range is a Problem…May Lock-in and Spread

NOAA/CPC indicates a large region of excessive to extreme heat during the medium-range for California, the Interior West and especially the Southwest U.S. and Great Plains to the East-central States. Hottest temperatures are in the Southwest Desert when 110’s is common in 9 days. Additionally, afternoon temperatures make a run at 110F in Oklahoma (and vicinity) at the same time.
06/28/2022, 8:11 am EDT

Review of PDSI and EDDI as U.S. is Drying Out!

U.S. drought concerns are increasing. The dry month of June combined with a lot of heat has caused Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to trend drier. Consequently, the rainfall needed to neutralize that dry soil moisture signature has increased DRAMATICALLY in late June. Off the chart (>15 in.) values appear in the NOAA/CPC analysis in Washington, California, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.
06/27/2022, 1:48 pm EDT

What We’re Concerned About: U.S. Drought Expansion!

Our concern as June closes is the widening dry-to-drought regime across many regions of the U.S. COUPLED with a massive zone located in the Central U.S. of deep layer soil moisture deficit. The deep layer soil moisture deficit is caused by long-term climate. The conditions describe foreshadow expanding drought and attendant anomalous heat for mid-to-late summer.
06/27/2022, 1:41 pm EDT

Relentless La Nina-Style SOI and MEI Marches On!

The dramatic difference between warm SSTA in the East Indian/West Pacific Ocean(s) and the cooler regime in the Central/East Pacific Ocean renders a La Nina-like atmospheric climate pattern unlikely to change.