June 2022 - Climate Impact Company

06/30/2022, 4:21 pm EDT

Emerging Heat in the Medium-range is a Problem…May Lock-in and Spread

NOAA/CPC indicates a large region of excessive to extreme heat during the medium-range for California, the Interior West and especially the Southwest U.S. and Great Plains to the East-central States. Hottest temperatures are in the Southwest Desert when 110’s is common in 9 days. Additionally, afternoon temperatures make a run at 110F in Oklahoma (and vicinity) at the same time.

06/28/2022, 8:11 am EDT

Review of PDSI and EDDI as U.S. is Drying Out!

U.S. drought concerns are increasing. The dry month of June combined with a lot of heat has caused Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to trend drier. Consequently, the rainfall needed to neutralize that dry soil moisture signature has increased DRAMATICALLY in late June. Off the chart (>15 in.) values appear in the NOAA/CPC analysis in Washington, California, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.

06/27/2022, 1:48 pm EDT

What We’re Concerned About: U.S. Drought Expansion!

Our concern as June closes is the widening dry-to-drought regime across many regions of the U.S. COUPLED with a massive zone located in the Central U.S. of deep layer soil moisture deficit. The deep layer soil moisture deficit is caused by long-term climate. The conditions describe foreshadow expanding drought and attendant anomalous heat for mid-to-late summer.

06/27/2022, 1:41 pm EDT

Relentless La Nina-Style SOI and MEI Marches On!

The dramatic difference between warm SSTA in the East Indian/West Pacific Ocean(s) and the cooler regime in the Central/East Pacific Ocean renders a La Nina-like atmospheric climate pattern unlikely to change.

06/26/2022, 8:54 am EDT

Model Verification Indicates Recent Cooler/Wetter U.S. Forecasts Are Overstated

Recent forecasts for the medium range particularly by GFS have turned somewhat cooler after a nationally hot June pattern (so far). The hot June observations (so far) have been driven in-part by a wide area of soil moisture deficits and a drier Eastern U.S. trend. Consequently, the GFS is verifying too cool in the Midwest States (and too warm in the West). Most models have also been biased too wet North-central and East in June.

06/24/2022, 8:13 am EDT

Dangerously Warm Northern Gulf of Mexico SST

The northern Gulf of Mexico SST pattern has warmed to 85-88F (29-31C) in June. Daily SSTA analysis reveals these values are 3-4C warmer than normal. During the recent (2016-21) North Atlantic basin active tropical cyclone period when seasonal tropical storm average has exceeded 19 (normal is near 14), tropical cyclones moving into the western or northern Gulf of Mexico across 87F/31C SST (Harvey, Michael, Laura, Delta and Ida) have transitioned into category-4 major hurricanes just-before making landfall.

06/24/2022, 8:08 am EDT

Increasing Risk of Development for 94L

In the outer tropical North Atlantic basin a tropical disturbance (94L) is drifting due west with some organization. SST are sufficiently warm in this low latitude to sustain 94L and the shear axis is well to the north and showing signs of weakening.

06/23/2022, 4:30 pm EDT

U.S. Summer 2022 CDD Count Eased Back As High Population Coastal Regions Adjusted Cooler

The latest monthly U.S. population weight CDD anomaly forecast shifts cooler than the 2019-21 normal as the outlooks are hot in the Central U.S. including Texas but trend less hot/cooler on each (high population) coastal region(s).

06/20/2022, 5:31 pm EDT

La Nina Continues to Weaken But Further Weakening Is Likely Temporary

Oceanic La Nina continues to weaken. The Nino34 SSTA is just-within the La Nina threshold at -0.6C. In the subsurface, the equatorial East Pacific is warming and east of the Dateline upper ocean heat is now warmer than normal.

06/20/2022, 5:28 pm EDT

Increasing Rainfall Shortages Across U.S.

Soil moisture deficits increase dramatically once meteorological summer arrives due to the intensity of the sun. Only areas receiving moderate to heavy rainfall, cloud cover or cool temperatures can avoid this problem. Right now, significant soil moisture shortages are affecting a vast portion of the lower 48 contiguous states. Most notably, >15 in. rainfall deficits are affecting parched northern California, parts of the Northwest U.S. and adding the upper Texas Coast.

06/17/2022, 1:37 pm EDT

The U.S. June 20-24 Heatwave from ERCOT to SERC

Using today's 12Z GFS identifies an immense heatwave forecast for Texas to the Southeast U.S. next week. Temperatures trend a little hotter each day with historical records most likely to strike Houston and Atlanta. Readings in the 103-106F range are likely for each location with heat index reaching 115F.

06/17/2022, 8:31 am EDT

Over Half of the U.S. at Risk of >100F

In the 6-10-day period valid for next week over half of the U.S. is at risk of >100F maximum temperature. The focus remains on Texas, the Mid-south and Southeast U.S. California to Arizona is added!