News
06/30/2022, 9:04 pm EDT

Europe Month 1-4 Ahead Outlook: Mid-to-late summer 2022 trends a little warmer/drier across Europe but with an increase in month-to-month variability.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead climate outlook for Europe/Western Russia is updated. The forecast is valid for July through September and October outlook is added. The forecast is based soil moisture and trend and the projected SSTA pattern in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. The 90-day outlook valid for JUL/AUG/SEP 2022 reveals a warmer than normal mid-to-late summer for Europe also accompanied by a dry climate. Drought risk for Europe during the summer season is increasing. Southwest Russia is drier while West-central Russia trends somewhat wetter. Ukraine is trending toward drought. Fig. 1-2: The Europe/Western Russia temperature/precipitation anomalies and upper air projection for JUL/AUG/SEP 2022. Climate discussion: During June, high-pressure centered just-south of Italy caused a vast warmer-than-normal climate across Europe and Western Russia (Fig. 5). The upper ridge is well-correlated with the dramatic warming of the Mediterranean Sea. A new upper trough was introduced off the coast of Portugal which occasionally produced wet weather across France during June (Fig. 6). Western Russia and Southeast Europe were very dry during June. As July 1st approaches the prevailing soil moisture conditions indicate widespread dry-to-drought across Europe plus the Baltic Region and Ukraine (Fig. 7). Widespread drought warnings are issued by the Europe Drought Observatory. The month 1-3 outlook is based on the global SSTA forecast (Fig. 8) according to the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME). Heavily considered is the very warm SSTA surrounding Europe continuing to evolver during the summer season. A continuation of the La Nina climate is also contributing to the outlook. Fig. 3-4: June 1-28, 2022 temperature and precipitation anomalies across Europe and Western Russia. Fig. 5-6: Europe soil moisture anomalies and the IMME global SSTA forecast for September 2022. July 2022: Given the warm Mediterranean Sea continuing through mid-summer, the upper ridge pattern forecast for July may be a bit farther west than Southwest Russia. The sensible forecast cools Southeast Europe to Italy and turns the climate pattern there somewhat wetter. Drought concerns remain and are most profound across northern portions of France and Germany. Dryness is also present in Ukraine. The forecast turns Northern Europe wetter but Western Russia is adjusted somewhat drier. Parts of Romania to Ukraine and West/Central Europe observe drought concerns. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for July 2022. August 2022: Late meteorological summer features a Northern Europe deep trough compensated for by an upper ridge over Western Russia. The sensible weather forecast has changed significantly from the previous outlook. Europe turns cooler but stays dry as drought concerns increase for western sections. Wet weather emerges just to the west of the high-pressure ridge axis in Western Russia to the Black Sea region in August, a much wetter change. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for August 2022. September 2022: Month-to-month variability reigns! In September, the upper ridge pattern returns to Western Europe where anomalous warmth and dryness dominate except far Western Europe coastal areas where a wetter regime is forecast. An upper trough drops anchor near Caspian Sea promoting a much cooler and wetter regime there. Fig. 11-12: The preliminary Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for September 2022. October 2022: A changeable forecast as a previous warm scenario flips much cooler. Uncertainty at this long-lead indicates additional changes are possible. Northern Europe/Northwest Russia is mild while Central Europe across the Black Sea region is cool (and wet). Fig. 13-14: The preliminary Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for October 2022.
06/30/2022, 4:25 pm EDT

AG Market Hot Spot: Widening extreme heat developing later next week in Great Plains.

U.S. Corn Belt learning point…Incoming heat stress to crop areas subtract moisture out of soils more efficiently than occasional passing thunderstorms can add moisture. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC extreme heat risk areas ahead. Discussion: AG Markets grapple with “ring of fire” thunderstorms into the medium-range which attempt to protect the U.S. Corn Belt from drought expansion. Remember that summertime thunderstorms, especially northwest flow storms as indicated by forecast models across the Midwest, are fast-movers and effective at producing heavy rainfall generally over constricted areas. Unless a particular area is hit 2 or 3 times during the possible wet sequence, soil moisture conditions are likely to not improve. The occasional rainfall is welcome. However, the risk of excessive heat or heat stress caused by high heat index creeps into the U.S. Corn Belt during the medium/extended-range. Hot weather (near 100 southwest Corn Belt; 90’s elsewhere) can quickly subtract moisture from soils simply due to the broad (rather than patchy) aerial coverage. The other issue here is that the extreme heat in the central/southeast Great Plains to Texas lasts long enough to generate feedback to the atmosphere which in-turn may amplify the upper-level ridge causing the heat. As the tropics become more active, the ridge will shift northward. All Great Plains crop areas including Midwest U.S. corn is at risk for dry-to-drought conditions emerging mid-to-late summer.
06/30/2022, 4:21 pm EDT

Emerging Heat in the Medium-range is a Problem…May Lock-in and Spread

NOAA/CPC indicates a large region of excessive to extreme heat during the medium-range for California, the Interior West and especially the Southwest U.S. and Great Plains to the East-central States. Hottest temperatures are in the Southwest Desert when 110’s is common in 9 days. Additionally, afternoon temperatures make a run at 110F in Oklahoma (and vicinity) at the same time.
06/30/2022, 4:19 pm EDT

Daily Energy Report: Emerging heat in medium-range is a problem…May lock-in and spread.

Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC extreme heat risk areas ahead. Discussion: NOAA/CPC indicates a large region of excessive to extreme heat during the medium-range for California, the Interior West and especially the Southwest U.S. and Great Plains to the East-central States. Hottest temperatures are in the Southwest Desert when 110’s is common in 9 days. Additionally, afternoon temperatures make a run at 110F in Oklahoma (and vicinity) at the same time. Excessive heat will reach into the northern states from Oregon to Indian in the 8-14/11-15-day period. This scenario is a major problem for U.S. energy. Obviously, the excessive heat across ERCOT and especially SPP may produce some records. The larger concern is the ability of extreme heat in July to dry-out soils rapidly which contributes to feedback into the atmosphere that amplifies the upper ridge, sustains the heat and can make already hot temperatures hotter. This risk will widen its aerial coverage during mid-summer most effective across areas with dry soils. Notice that the East is unaffected. When that upper trough in Eastern Canada lifts northward or weakens, the Central U.S. heat will ride eastward fast, down-sloping the Appalachians and producing extreme heat most-focused on the Mid-Atlantic States. We don’t see that scenario yet but it’s on the way.