News
06/13/2022, 12:52 pm EDT

Mid-June North Atlantic SSTA Pattern is Marginally Warm

The Gulf of Mexico basin average is a balmy 83.2F which is slightly (+0.18F) warmer than normal and moderately cooler (-0.45F) during the past 30 days. The North Atlantic SST threshold for tropical cyclones is 81F/27C which generally covers the entire Gulf except slightly cooler temperatures off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Mexico Coast.
06/12/2022, 1:53 pm EDT

Rapidly Rising Solar Index is Ahead of Original Forecast

Currently, the sunspot number of solar cycle 25 for May 2022 continues well-ahead of the original forecast. The original forecast by NASA repeated the relatively weak solar cycle 24 signature. However, the monthly sunspot number has continued to out-perform the original forecast dating back near 2 years.
06/12/2022, 9:38 am EDT

A ROBUST La Nina Climate continues Through Q3/2022

Although oceanic parameters are of moderate La Nina intensity, the strong La Nina atmosphere is likely triggered by the sharp contrast in strong subsidence across the East Pacific tropics compared with an energetic convective regime across the far West Pacific as identified by the May 2022 monthly velocity potential analysis from IRI/LDEO.
06/01/2022, 4:15 pm EDT
This afternoon NOAA/NHC initiated Tropical Disturbance 91L. This system should track northeastward from the Yucatan Peninsula across the far southeast Gulf of Mexico later this week. The upper shear pattern is quite strong but if the shear eases as expected the reasonably warm surface of the southeast Gulf of Mexico should allow strengthening of 91L to a named storm (Alex).