Frequently referred to research identifying PDO/AMO regimes combined influence on U.S. drought risk was published by McCabe, Palecki and Betancourt in 2004. The influence of long-term -PDO/+AMO regimes on U.S. drought risk is elevated for the Southwest and West-central U.S. plus Texas and also the Midwest States. The Southwest U.S. to Texas drought is already locked-in while the Midwest U.S. has avoided drought so far. But that will change during mid-to-late summer!

Mega-cluster ensembles maintain the hot and dry Central/Southeast U.S. weather pattern through the end of June. Dryness accompanies the hot weather zones. In Europe, the hot/dry weather shifts eastward and may subside (temporarily) by late month.

The Gulf of Mexico basin average is a balmy 83.2F which is slightly (+0.18F) warmer than normal and moderately cooler (-0.45F) during the past 30 days. The North Atlantic SST threshold for tropical cyclones is 81F/27C which generally covers the entire Gulf except slightly cooler temperatures off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Mexico Coast.