Mid-June North Atlantic SSTA Pattern is Marginally Warm

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Highlight: A look at the mid-June North Atlantic SSTA pattern. Overall…North Atlantic basin is marginally warm and the basin-wide 30-day trend is slightly cooler. May be mid-July until anything important develops.

Fig. 1: Daily Gulf of Mexico SST analysis.

Discussion: The Gulf of Mexico basin average is a balmy 83.2F which is slightly (+0.18F) warmer than normal and moderately cooler (-0.45F) during the past 30 days (Fig. 1). The North Atlantic SST threshold for tropical cyclones is 81F/27C which generally covers the entire Gulf except slightly cooler temperatures off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Mexico Coast.

In the Main Development Region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes located in-between the Caribbean Sea and Northwest Coast of Africa, the 81F/27C threshold for tropical cyclone development is in the deep tropics (Fig. 2). The MDR is slightly warmer than normal and has warmed 0.22F during the past 30 days.

The western North Atlantic basin is moderately warmer than normal (+0.61F) and has warmed slightly (+0.18F) during the past 30 days (Fig. 3). The 81F/27C threshold extends into the Gulf Stream and across the Bahamas south to Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Fig. 2: Daily tropical North Atlantic SST analysis.

Fig. 3: Daily western North Atlantic SST analysis.