05/31/2022, 11:30 am EDT

The Likely Evolution of “Alex”.

An area of low pressure is situated over far Southeast Mexico and is expected to consolidate into a more organized center in about 48 hours off the north coast of Belize. At that time, ECMWF indicates this system is likely a tropical depression. This system drifts north-northeastward on the back side of the North Atlantic subtropical ridge late this week and crosses water sufficient to allow intensification to a tropical storm.
05/30/2022, 9:58 am EDT

La Nina Trend Weaker and That Trend is Likely to Continue

Last week the Nino SSTA regions warmed as moderate intensity La Nina weakened slightly. The slight weakening trend is likely to continue although the La Nina climate pattern is likely to hold for 2022.
05/30/2022, 9:49 am EDT

Madden Julian Oscillation Shifts to Atlantic in Early June Increasing TC Risk

The convection phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation has shifted into the tropical East Pacific and helped trigger Hurricane Agatha. Forecasts indicate the MJO shifts to the tropical Atlantic in early June which supports tropical cyclone activity development - most likely in the Gulf of Mexico.
05/27/2022, 9:55 am EDT

Projected U.S. High Impact Climate June Through September

The primary concerns heading into summertime are drought (and attendant anomalous heat) and coastal tropical cyclone risk. The JUN/JUL 2022 outlook emphasizes dryness (and anomalous heat) across Texas and into the Southwest States. Drought in this region, particularly Texas strengthens. The Midwest States are wet in June and flip very dry mid-summer.