News
05/26/2022, 7:53 pm EDT

U.S. Month 1-4 Ahead Outlook

Highlight: Hot summer forecast remains; Wet East while Central dryness organizes. Executive Summary: Climate Impact Company updates the month 1-3 outlooks for the U.S. and adds September. The forecast is projected using a constructed analog. Minor adjustments are made to the forecast due to a stronger La Nina climate. Highlights include a sprawling hotter than normal summer for the U.S. except for the coastal Northwest States. Hottest temperatures are across northern Texas/southern Great Plains drought area. Hot and dry weather organize in the Central U.S. during mid-summer as the drought affecting the western half of the U.S. expands. Most Gulf and East Coast locations are susceptible to heavy rain related to tropical cyclone risk. Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for summer 2022.  High impact climate summary: The primary concerns heading into summertime are drought (and attendant anomalous heat) and coastal tropical cyclone risk. The JUN/JUL 2022 outlook (Fig. 3) emphasizes dryness (and anomalous heat) across Texas and into the Southwest States. Drought in this region, particularly Texas strengthens. The Midwest States are wet in June and flip very dry mid-summer. Elsewhere, anomalous heat risk is evident in the Mid-Atlantic States for both months particularly June while California heat is most intense in July. The Carolinas are susceptible to flood risk possibly due to early season tropical cyclones. The outlook for AUG/SEP 2022 (Fig. 4) indicates widespread hot weather risk in the Central U.S. while the Midwest dry pattern lingers. Drought spreads across the Great Plains into the Midwest region. Tropical cyclone risk is identified for the northeast Gulf in August and Texas/Louisiana coast in September. The northern Mid-Atlantic States are at risk of flooding rainfall. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company high impact climate forecast for JUN/JUL and AUG/SEP 2022. Climate: The meteorological summer 2022 plus September climate outlooks are projected using a SSTA-based constructed analog. The SSTA patterns included are ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), combining the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and soil moisture regimes. The outlook is adjusted based primarily on a stronger than previously forecast La Nina climate influence. June 2022: The June forecast has a significant adjustment. The La Nina climate influence for early summer causes a cooler/wetter forecast change for the Northern U.S. To the south of that zone, anomalous heat can be excessive in Texas/Oklahoma and the Mid-Atlantic States. The Midwest to East Coast is somewhat wetter than normal during June. Dryness helps to enhance anomalous heat in the southern Great Plains to Texas. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for June 2022.  July 2022: As previously indicated, the hot weather pattern is pushed northward during July. Hardest-hit areas include California/Nevada to Wyoming, the Upper Midwest and Northeast Corridor. The Southern States trend more temperate due to wet climate especially across the Southeast U.S. A wet monsoon pattern featuring above normal tropical cyclone risk is indicated. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for July 2022.  August 2022: the outlook is wetter and more temperate in the East. There are concerns in regard to a land-falling tropical cyclone into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. A Gulf system moving into Georgia is possible. The western Gulf States are dry and hot! In the Midwest States, a dry and hot climate pattern develops rapidly! The cooler forecast for California is made with LOW confidence. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for August 2022.  September 2022: the outlook is adjusted cooler to near normal in the East. Hot weather in the Central U.S. roars on and areas of drought worsen. Tropical cyclone risk is evident in the northwest Gulf of Mexico States. The coastal Northwest U.S. turns wet in a LOW confidence forecast. Fig. 11-12: The preliminary Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for September 2022.   
05/26/2022, 7:52 pm EDT

U.S. Month 1-4 Ahead Outlook

Highlight: Hot summer forecast remains; Wet East while Central dryness organizes. Executive Summary: Climate Impact Company updates the month 1-3 outlooks for the U.S. and adds September. The forecast is projected using a constructed analog. Minor adjustments are made to the forecast due to a stronger La Nina climate. Highlights include a sprawling hotter than normal summer for the U.S. except for the coastal Northwest States. Hottest temperatures are across northern Texas/southern Great Plains drought area. Hot and dry weather organize in the Central U.S. during mid-summer as the drought affecting the western half of the U.S. expands. Most Gulf and East Coast locations are susceptible to heavy rain related to tropical cyclone risk. Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for summer 2022.  High impact climate summary: The primary concerns heading into summertime are drought (and attendant anomalous heat) and coastal tropical cyclone risk. The JUN/JUL 2022 outlook (Fig. 3) emphasizes dryness (and anomalous heat) across Texas and into the Southwest States. Drought in this region, particularly Texas strengthens. The Midwest States are wet in June and flip very dry mid-summer. Elsewhere, anomalous heat risk is evident in the Mid-Atlantic States for both months particularly June while California heat is most intense in July. The Carolinas are susceptible to flood risk possibly due to early season tropical cyclones. The outlook for AUG/SEP 2022 (Fig. 4) indicates widespread hot weather risk in the Central U.S. while the Midwest dry pattern lingers. Drought spreads across the Great Plains into the Midwest region. Tropical cyclone risk is identified for the northeast Gulf in August and Texas/Louisiana coast in September. The northern Mid-Atlantic States are at risk of flooding rainfall. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company high impact climate forecast for JUN/JUL and AUG/SEP 2022. Climate: The meteorological summer 2022 plus September climate outlooks are projected using a SSTA-based constructed analog. The SSTA patterns included are ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), combining the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and soil moisture regimes. The outlook is adjusted based primarily on a stronger than previously forecast La Nina climate influence. June 2022: The June forecast has a significant adjustment. The La Nina climate influence for early summer causes a cooler/wetter forecast change for the Northern U.S. To the south of that zone, anomalous heat can be excessive in Texas/Oklahoma and the Mid-Atlantic States. The Midwest to East Coast is somewhat wetter than normal during June. Dryness helps to enhance anomalous heat in the southern Great Plains to Texas. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for June 2022.  July 2022: As previously indicated, the hot weather pattern is pushed northward during July. Hardest-hit areas include California/Nevada to Wyoming, the Upper Midwest and Northeast Corridor. The Southern States trend more temperate due to wet climate especially across the Southeast U.S. A wet monsoon pattern featuring above normal tropical cyclone risk is indicated. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for July 2022.  August 2022: the outlook is wetter and more temperate in the East. There are concerns in regard to a land-falling tropical cyclone into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. A Gulf system moving into Georgia is possible. The western Gulf States are dry and hot! In the Midwest States, a dry and hot climate pattern develops rapidly! The cooler forecast for California is made with LOW confidence. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for August 2022.  September 2022: the outlook is adjusted cooler to near normal in the East. Hot weather in the Central U.S. roars on and areas of drought worsen. Tropical cyclone risk is evident in the northwest Gulf of Mexico States. The coastal Northwest U.S. turns wet in a LOW confidence forecast. Fig. 11-12: The preliminary Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for September 2022.   
05/26/2022, 7:41 pm EDT

Daily Feature: Back door cold front effects on Coastal Northeast next week.

Discussion: The second heat wave of 2022 is forecast for the PJM-East Sector middle of next week. Aloft, the atmosphere is warm associated with amplified high pressure and certainly supportive of high temperatures in the 90’s. GFS indicates risk of 100 in the NYC area on Tuesday, the first day of the heat wave. At that time a cool ocean air mass trailing a westward moving “back door” cold front will cool off the New England coast likely more than indicated in the Tuesday maximum temperature forecast by GFS (Fig. 1). However, west-northwest low-level forcing well inland produces the proper dynamic to drive 95-100 maximum temperatures in the NYC area. On Wednesday, there is some question as to how far inland the “back door’ cold front reaches. All of southeast New England, possibly Long Island and the northern Mid-Atlantic coast could turn cooler while inland stays hot (Fig. 2). On Thursday a southwest wind ahead of a cold front pushes the ocean air mass offshore and the entire Northeast Corridor is in the 90’s – hottest at the coast (Fig. 3). So…the hot regime is valid but the cold late spring ocean will cause much cooler risk near the coast with peak risk of that cool on Wednesday. At the moment, thunderstorms ahead of the cold front are expected most impactful Thursday night. Fig. 1: GFS projected maximum temperature for next Tuesday. Fig. 2: GFS projected maximum temperature for next Wednesday. Fig. 3: GFS projected maximum temperature for next Thursday.      
05/26/2022, 7:38 pm EDT

U.S. Energy Market Midday Update

Trader/Analyst Learning Point: Know the ridge/trough position to judge (Northeast) heat. 12Z GFS much warmer East days 11-15 (right trend). Discussion: The location of the high-pressure ridge is paramount to determine the intensity of an incoming heatwave. During late spring in the Northeast, the still cold ocean can play an immense role on the coastal markets. Let’s take a look at the upper air forecast for next week’s heat wave based on the just-issued 12Z GFS. On Monday, note the Southeast Canada trough (Fig. 1). In-between the trough and ridge axis over the Interior Mid-Atlantic a moderate to strong northwest flow is present. This is a hot pattern! The air is dry and wind down-sloping the Appalachians to push 92-97 risk from Richmond to Boston! On Tuesday, the upper trough is moving into the North Atlantic and forces the back door cold front farther south (Fig. 2). It’s hard to know exactly where this front will be located on Tuesday. However, mid 90’s in Boston Monday easily crash into the 60’s on Tuesday in this set-up. Note the westerly wind aloft propelling the warmest anomalies shift westward. NYC might see the ocean front by late day. Much cooler New England/Long Island and hot everywhere else with warmest anomalies in the eastern Ohio Valley to BWI/DCA. Sometimes you need to look to the east for the weather ahead. The midday GFS intensifies the upper trough south of Newfoundland which propels the ocean front southward along the Mid-Atlantic Coast (Fig. 3). There may be a few thunderstorms on this front which further cools afternoon temperatures for the PJM-East Coast. The upper ridge is losing amplitude which lowers the strength of the anomalous heat. There appears to be enough push to scour away the back door front on Thursday as the upper ridge shifts east (Fig. 4). However, to the south a cloud-maker trough organizes and will eject cirrus northward to temper the attendant heat. Late day thunderstorms ahead of a cold front are also approaching. Fig. 1-4: The 12Z GFS upper air forecast for mid-afternoon next Monday through Thursday. Dates CDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24 Hours Ago 10-Year NML 30-Year NML May 20-26   36.8 +0.1 36.7 36.7 33.1 May 27-June 2 55.4 -2.7 57.6 44.1 40.0 June 3-9   69.8 +12.6 47.3 51.4 47.1 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.