An area of low pressure is situated over far Southeast Mexico and is expected to consolidate into a more organized center in about 48 hours off the north coast of Belize. At that time, ECMWF indicates this system is likely a tropical depression. This system drifts north-northeastward on the back side of the North Atlantic subtropical ridge late this week and crosses water sufficient to allow intensification to a tropical storm.

Last week the Nino SSTA regions warmed as moderate intensity La Nina weakened slightly. The slight weakening trend is likely to continue although the La Nina climate pattern is likely to hold for 2022.